Sources of Economic Growth in Indonesia, 1966-2003
This paper undertakes an empirical investigation of factors that contributed to economic growth in Indonesia for the period 1966 to 2003. A Cobb-Douglas production function is estimated with a time trend to capture the rate of technological progress within a cointegral and error-correction modeling framework. In the estimated production function, the coefficients on both capital and labor bear a positive sign and are statistically significant. As the sum of these coefficients appears significantly lower that one, by imposing the restriction of constant returns to scale, the production function is re-estimated in per-capita form. The estimated long-term parameter values are then used to compute the contributions of capital, labor and technology to economic growth for the periods 1966 to 2003, 1966 to 1981, 1982 to 1996, and 1982 to 2003. The computed sources of growth indicate that for the last 40 years the most important source of growth in Indonesia was capital accumulation, about 60 percent. The contribution of labor to economic growth during this period was about 32 percent, while technological progress contributed the remaining 8 percent. The dynamic behavior of output growth is examined by estimating an error-correction model of per-capita real GDP, which explains about 83 percent of the variations of productivity growth over the period 1967 to 2003. Within a Granger-causality framework, the impacts of key indicators of macroeconomic policies and external developments, such as budget deficits, inflation, trade openness, the growth rate of the real exchange rate and the growth rate of the external terms-of-trade, on per-capita output growth are also individually examined for the period 1967 to 2003. The test results suggest that trade openness, the real exchange rate depreciation and changes in the external terms of trade have a feedback causal relationship with per-capita output growth. However, inflation and budget deficits do not have any significant causal effect on productivity growth.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 6 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm|
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.usc.es/economet/info.htm Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fischer, Stanley, 1993.
"The role of macroeconomic factors in growth,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
- Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1990.
"Trade, Innovation, and Growth,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 86-91, May.
- Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
- Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Risager, Ole, 1984. "Does devaluation improve the current account?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 37-64, June.
- P. Krugman & L. Taylor, 1976.
"Contractionary Effects of Devaluations,"
191, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1995.
"Inflation crises and long-run growth,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1517, The World Bank.
- Barro, R.J., 1988.
"Government Spending In A Simple Model Of Endogenous Growth,"
RCER Working Papers
130, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S103-26, October.
- Robert J. Barro, 1988. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 2588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J., 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogeneous Growth," Scholarly Articles 3451296, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Paul Romer, 1989.
"Endogenous Technological Change,"
NBER Working Papers
3210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Laurence Ball, 1990.
"Why Does High Inflation Raise Inflation Uncertainty?,"
NBER Working Papers
3224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June.
- Stanley Fischer & Carlos A. VÃ©gh Gramont & Ratna Sahay, 1996.
"Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies; The Early Experience,"
IMF Working Papers
96/31, International Monetary Fund.
- Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Vegh, 1996. "Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies: The Early Experience," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 45-66, Spring.
- S. Fisher & R. Sahay & C. A. Vegh, 1997. "Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies: The Early Experience," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 5.
- Fischer, Stanley & Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos, 1996. "Stabilization and growth in transition economies: The early experience," MPRA Paper 20631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Atish Ghosh & Steven Phillips, 1998. "Warning: Inflation May Be Harmful to Your Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 672-710, December.
- Gundlach, Erich, 1996.
"Openness and economic growth in developing countries,"
Kiel Working Papers
749, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Erich Gundlach, 1997. "Openness and economic growth in developing countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 479-496, September.
- Gundlach, Erich, 1997. "Openness and economic growth in developing countries," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1723, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
- Barbone, Luca & Rivera-Batiz, Francisco, 1987. "Foreign capital and the contractionary impact of currency devaluation, with an application to Jamaica," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-15, June.
- Barro, Robert J. & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992.
"Public Finance in Models of Economic Growth,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
630, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-74, January.
- Thorvaldur Gylfason & Michael Schmid, 1983. "Does Devaluation Cause Stagflation?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 641-54, November.
- By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001.
"Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1.
- A. Senhadji Semlali & Mohsin S. Khan, 2000. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Working Papers 00/110, International Monetary Fund.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Tom Doan, . "KPSS: RATS procedure to perform KPSS (Kwiatowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin) stationarity test," Statistical Software Components RTS00100, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Edwards, Sebastian, 1992.
"Trade orientation, distortions and growth in developing countries,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 31-57, July.
- Sebastian Edwards, 1991. "Trade Orientation, Distortions and Growth in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 3716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- S. Illeris & G. Akehurst, 2001. "Introduction," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-4, January.
- Linda Kamas, 1992. "Devaluation, national output and the trade balance: Some evidence from Colombia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 425-445, September.
- De Gregorio, Jose, 1993. "Inflation, taxation, and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 271-298, June.
- Peter Doyle & Peter F. Christoffersen, 1998. "From Inflation to Growth; Eight Years of Transition," IMF Working Papers 98/100, International Monetary Fund.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
- J. Saul Lizondo & Peter J. Montiel, 1989. "Contractionary Devaluation in Developing Countries: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(1), pages 182-227, March.
- James A. Dorn, 2003. "Introduction," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 23(1), pages 1-9, Spring/Su.
- Romer, Paul M, 1986.
"Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October.
- Michael Sarel, 1996. "Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 199-215, March.
- Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Radetzki, Marian, 1991. "Does Devaluation Make Sense in the Least Developed Countries?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(1), pages 1-25, October.
- Sebastian Edwards, 1985.
"Are Devaluations Contractionary?,"
NBER Working Papers
1676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:6:y:2006:i:2_13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (M. Carmen Guisan)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.