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General correcting formulae for forecasts

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  • Harin, Alexander

Abstract

The concept of unforeseen events is considered as a part of a hypothesis of uncertain future. The applications of the consequences of the hypothesis in utility and prospect theories are reviewed. Partially unforeseen events and their role in forecasting are analyzed. Preliminary preparations are shown to be able, under specified conditions, to quicken the revisions of forecasts and to hedge or diversify financial risks after partially unforeseen events have occurred. General correcting formulae for forecasts are proposed.

Suggested Citation

  • Harin, Alexander, 2014. "General correcting formulae for forecasts," MPRA Paper 55283, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:55283
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    6. Alexander Harin, 2013. "Data dispersion near the boundaries: can it partially explain the problems of decision and utility theories?," Working Papers hal-00851022, HAL.
    7. Alexander Harin, 2006. "Principle of Uncertain Future," Microeconomics harin_alexander.34115-061, Socionet.
    8. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2012. "Model selection when there are multiple breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 239-246.
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    10. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:28:y:2004:i:11:p:a0 is not listed on IDEAS
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    12. Harin, Alexander, 2004. "О Возможности Нарушения Договоренностей [About possibility of arrangements infringements]," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 6(2), pages 20-21.
    13. Harin, Alexander, 2009. "Ruptures in the probability scale? Calculation of ruptures’ dimensions," MPRA Paper 19348, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Tversky, Amos & Wakker, Peter, 1995. "Risk Attitudes and Decision Weights," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(6), pages 1255-1280, November.
    15. Harin, Alexander, 2008. "Solution of the Ellsberg paradox by means of the principle of uncertain future," MPRA Paper 8168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    17. Harin, Alexander, 2009. "General correcting formula of forecasting?," MPRA Paper 15746, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Harin, Alexander, 2007. "Principle of uncertain future and utility," MPRA Paper 1959, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecast; uncertainty; risk; utility; decisions; Ellsberg paradox;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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