IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/55283.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

General correcting formulae for forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Harin, Alexander

Abstract

The concept of unforeseen events is considered as a part of a hypothesis of uncertain future. The applications of the consequences of the hypothesis in utility and prospect theories are reviewed. Partially unforeseen events and their role in forecasting are analyzed. Preliminary preparations are shown to be able, under specified conditions, to quicken the revisions of forecasts and to hedge or diversify financial risks after partially unforeseen events have occurred. General correcting formulae for forecasts are proposed.

Suggested Citation

  • Harin, Alexander, 2014. "General correcting formulae for forecasts," MPRA Paper 55283, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:55283
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/55283/1/MPRA_paper_55283.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2012. "Model selection when there are multiple breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 239-246.
    2. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:28:y:2004:i:11:p:a0 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Thresholds, news impact surfaces and dynamic asymmetric multivariate GARCH," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 65(2), pages 125-163, May.
    4. Steve Morlidge, 2013. "How Good Is a "Good" Forecast?: Forecast Errors and Their Avoidability," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 30, pages 5-11, Summer.
    5. Harin, Alexander, 2009. "Ruptures in the probability scale? Calculation of ruptures’ dimensions," MPRA Paper 19348, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. McAleer, Michael & Medeiros, Marcelo C. & Slottje, Daniel, 2008. "A neural network demand system with heteroskedastic errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 359-371, December.
    7. Chang, Chia-Lin & Franses, Philip Hans & McAleer, Michael, 2011. "How accurate are government forecasts of economic fundamentals? The case of Taiwan," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1066-1075, October.
    8. Carmela Di Mauro & Anna Maffioletti, 2004. "Attitudes to risk and attitudes to uncertainty: experimental evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 357-372.
    9. Alexander Harin, 2012. "Data Dispersion in Economics (I) - Possibility of Restrictions," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 2, pages 59-70, August.
    10. Alexander Harin, 2004. "Arrangement infringement possibility approach: some economic features of large-scale events," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 28(11), pages 1.
    11. Tversky, Amos & Wakker, Peter, 1995. "Risk Attitudes and Decision Weights," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(6), pages 1255-1280, November.
    12. Harin, Alexander, 2008. "Solution of the Ellsberg paradox by means of the principle of uncertain future," MPRA Paper 8168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Harin, Alexander, 2009. "General correcting formula of forecasting?," MPRA Paper 15746, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2010. "A Scientific Classification Of Volatility Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 192-195, February.
    15. Alexander Harin, 2012. "Data Dispersion in Economics(II) - Inevitability and Consequences of Restrictions," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 2, pages 24-36, November.
    16. Alexander Harin, 2006. "Principle of Uncertain Future," Microeconomics harin_alexander.34115-061, Socionet.
    17. Alexander Harin, 2005. "A Rational Irrational Man," Public Economics 0511005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Alexander Harin, 2013. "Data dispersion near the boundaries: can it partially explain the problems of decision and utility theories?," Working Papers hal-00851022, HAL.
    19. Harin, Alexander, 2004. "О Возможности Нарушения Договоренностей [About possibility of arrangements infringements]," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 6(2), pages 20-21.
    20. Harin, Alexander, 2007. "Principle of uncertain future and utility," MPRA Paper 1959, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Harin, Alexander, 2014. "Is data interpretation in utility and prospect theories unquestionably correct?," MPRA Paper 53880, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Alexander HARIN, 2014. "Partially Unforeseen Events. Corrections and Correcting Formulae for Forecasts," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 2(2), pages 69-79.
    3. Alexander Harin, 2006. "Principle of Uncertain Future," Microeconomics harin_alexander.34115-061, Socionet.
    4. Harin, Alexander, 2015. "“Luce problem” and discontinuity of Prelec’s function at p = 1," MPRA Paper 63672, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Harin, Alexander, 2018. "Forbidden zones for the expectation of a random variable. New version 1," MPRA Paper 84248, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Alexander Harin, 2013. "Data dispersion near the boundaries: can it partially explain the problems of decision and utility theories?," Working Papers hal-00851022, HAL.
    7. Harin, Alexander, 2018. "Forbidden zones and biases for the expectation of a random variable. Version 2," MPRA Paper 85607, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Harin, Alexander, 2014. "Problems of utility and prospect theories. A ”certain-uncertain” inconsistency of the random-lottery incentive system," MPRA Paper 55706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Harin, Alexander, 2018. "Forbidden zones for the expectation. New mathematical results for behavioral and social sciences," MPRA Paper 86650, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Harin, Alexander, 2015. "Is Prelec’s function discontinuous at p = 1? (for the Einhorn Award of SJDM)," MPRA Paper 64672, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Harin, Alexander, 2019. "Behavioral sciences and auto-transformations. Introduction," MPRA Paper 97344, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Anna MAFFIOLETTI & Michele SANTONI, 2007. "Emotions, competence and confidence in choice under uncertainty," Departmental Working Papers 2007-31, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    13. Hela Maafi, 2011. "Preference Reversals Under Ambiguity," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(11), pages 2054-2066, November.
    14. Carmela Mauro, 2008. "Uncertainty Aversion Vs. Competence: An Experimental Market Study," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 301-331, March.
    15. Alexander Harin, 2005. "A Rational Irrational Man," Public Economics 0511005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Harin, Alexander, 2017. "About the minimal magnitudes of measurement’s forbidden zones. Version 1," MPRA Paper 78796, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Alexander Harin, 2005. "Gains and losses. The same or different choices?," International Finance 0508004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Harin, Alexander, 2017. "Some estimations of the minimal magnitudes of forbidden zones in experimental data," MPRA Paper 80319, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Harin, Alexander, 2015. "An existence theorem for bounds on the expectation of a random variable. Its opportunities for utility theories. V. 2," MPRA Paper 67071, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Alexander Harin, 2006. "A Rational Irrational Man?," Microeconomics harin_alexander.34115-060, Socionet.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecast; uncertainty; risk; utility; decisions; Ellsberg paradox;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:55283. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.