IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfin/v43y2016icp158-176.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A half-century diversion of monetary policy? An empirical horse-race to identify the UK variable most likely to deliver the desired nominal GDP growth rate

Author

Listed:
  • Ryan-Collins, Josh
  • Werner, Richard A.
  • Castle, Jennifer

Abstract

The financial crisis of 2007–2008 triggered monetary policy designed to boost nominal demand, including ‘Quantitative Easing’, ‘Credit Easing’, ‘Forward Guidance’ and ‘Funding for Lending’. A key aim of these policies was to boost the quantity of bank credit to the non-financial corporate and household sectors. In the previous decades, however, policy-makers had not focused on bank credit. Indeed, over the past half century, different variables were raised to prominence in the quest to achieve desired nominal GDP outcomes. This paper conducts a long-overdue horse race between the various contenders in terms of their ability to account for observed nominal GDP growth, using a half-century of UK data since 1963. Employing the ‘General-to-Specific’ methodology, an equilibrium-correction model is estimated suggesting a long-run cointegrating relationship between disaggregated real economy credit and nominal GDP. Short-term and long-term interest rates and broad money do not appear to influence nominal GDP significantly. Vector autoregression and vector error correction modelling shows the real economy credit growth variable to be strongly exogenous to nominal GDP growth. Policy-makers are hence right to finally emphasise the role of bank credit, although they need to disaggregate it and specifically target bank credit for GDP-transactions.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan-Collins, Josh & Werner, Richard A. & Castle, Jennifer, 2016. "A half-century diversion of monetary policy? An empirical horse-race to identify the UK variable most likely to deliver the desired nominal GDP growth rate," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 158-176.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:43:y:2016:i:c:p:158-176
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2016.03.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1042443116300208
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
    2. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "Nominal income targeting in an open-economy optimizing model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 553-578, June.
    3. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
    4. Sousa, Joao Miguel & Zaghini, Andrea, 2007. "Global monetary policy shocks in the G5: A SVAR approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 403-419, December.
    5. Beck Thorsten & Büyükkarabacak Berrak & Rioja Felix K. & Valev Neven T., 2012. "Who Gets the Credit? And Does It Matter? Household vs. Firm Lending Across Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-46, March.
    6. David Cobham & Yue Kang, 2012. "Financial Crisis And Quantitative Easing: Can Broad Money Tell Us Anything?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 80, pages 54-76, September.
    7. Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-563, September.
    8. Hume, Michael & Sentance, Andrew, 2009. "The global credit boom: Challenges for macroeconomics and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1426-1461, December.
    9. Werner, Richard A., 2012. "Towards a new research programme on ‘banking and the economy’ — Implications of the Quantity Theory of Credit for the prevention and resolution of banking and debt crises," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-17.
    10. repec:fip:fedreq:y:2011:i:3q:p:209-254:n:vol.97no.3 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Janine Aron & John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Keiko Murata & Anthony Murphy, 2012. "Credit, Housing Collateral, And Consumption: Evidence From Japan, The U.K., And The U.S," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 58(3), pages 397-423, September.
    12. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    13. repec:ags:aaea07:403 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Michael Joyce & David Miles & Andrew Scott & Dimitri Vayanos, 2012. "Quantitative Easing and Unconventional Monetary Policy – an Introduction," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 271-288, November.
    15. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1992. "Asymmetric Information in Credit Markets and Its Implications for Macro-economics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(4), pages 694-724, October.
    16. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    17. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 207-228, April.
    18. Lou, Weifang & Yin, Xiangkang, 2014. "The impact of the global financial crisis on mortgage pricing and credit supply," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 336-363.
    19. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2004. "Conducting Monetary Policy at Very Low Short-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 85-90, May.
    20. McLeay, Michael & Radia, Amar & Thomas, Ryland, 2014. "Money creation in the modern economy," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(1), pages 14-27.
    21. Love, Inessa & Turk Ariss, Rima, 2014. "Macro-financial linkages in Egypt: A panel analysis of economic shocks and loan portfolio quality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 158-181.
    22. Dueker, Michael & Kim, Gyuhan, 1999. "A monetary policy feedback rule in Korea's fast-growing economy," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 19-31, January.
    23. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Howells, Peter, 2001. "Money, Credit and Spending: Drawing Causal Inferences," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(5), pages 547-557, November.
    24. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2012. "Quantitative easing: a sceptical survey," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 750-764, WINTER.
    25. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2015. "Detecting Location Shifts during Model Selection by Step-Indicator Saturation," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(2), pages 1-25, April.
    26. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    27. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2005. "The Properties of Automatic "GETS" Modelling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(502), pages 32-61, March.
    28. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    29. Nguyen, Vu Hong Thai & Boateng, Agyenim, 2013. "The impact of excess reserves beyond precautionary levels on Bank Lending Channels in China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 358-377.
    30. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2012. "Model selection when there are multiple breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 239-246.
    31. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2011. "Rethinking Macroeconomics: What Failed, And How To Repair It," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 591-645, August.
    32. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H, 1973. "Mr. Hicks and the "Monetarists."," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 40(157), pages 44-59, February.
    33. Buiter, Willem H., 2008. "Central banks and financial crises," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 495-633.
    34. Voutsinas, Konstantinos & Werner, Richard A., 2011. "New evidence on the effectiveness of "Quantitative Easing" in Japan," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/30, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    35. John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2008. "Housing markets and the economy: the assessment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 1-33, spring.
    36. Vincenzo Quadrini, 2011. "Financial frictions in macroeconomic fluctations," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 3Q, pages 209-254.
    37. Carlos Santos & David Hendry & Soren Johansen, 2008. "Automatic selection of indicators in a fully saturated regression," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 317-335, April.
    38. Dirk Bezemer & Maria Grydaki & Lu Zhang, 2016. "More Mortgages, Lower Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(1), pages 652-674, January.
    39. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    40. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Bank Lending," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy, pages 221-261 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Werner, Richard A., 2014. "Can banks individually create money out of nothing? — The theories and the empirical evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-19.
    42. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    43. Christophe Bontemps & Grayham E. Mizon, 2008. "Encompassing: Concepts and Implementation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 721-750, December.
    44. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    45. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
    46. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua & Hoffmaister, Alexander W., 2004. "The credit crunch in East Asia: what can bank excess liquid assets tell us?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 27-49, February.
    47. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2008. "House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 180-205, spring.
    48. Cappiello, Lorenzo & Kadareja, Arjan & Kok, Christoffer & Protopapa, Marco, 2010. "Do bank loans and credit standards have an effect on output? A panel approach for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1150, European Central Bank.
    49. Gabriel Jimenez & Steven Ongena & Jose-Luis Peydro & Jesus Saurina, 2012. "Credit Supply and Monetary Policy: Identifying the Bank Balance-Sheet Channel with Loan Applications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2301-2326, August.
    50. Werner, Richard A., 2014. "Enhanced Debt Management: Solving the eurozone crisis by linking debt management with fiscal and monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 443-469.
    51. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    52. Michael Woodford, 2014. "Monetary Policy Targets after the Crisis," MIT Press Book Chapters,in: What Have We Learned? Macroeconomic Policy After the Crisis, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 55-62 The MIT Press.
    53. Girardin, Eric & Moussa, Zakaria, 2011. "Quantitative easing works: Lessons from the unique experience in Japan 2001â2006," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 461-495, October.
    54. Lyonnet, Victor & Werner, Richard, 2012. "Lessons from the Bank of England on ‘quantitative easing’ and other ‘unconventional’ monetary policies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 94-105.
    55. Richard Werner, 2011. "Economics As If Banks Mattered: A Contribution Based On The Inductive Methodology," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(s2), pages 25-35, September.
    56. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    57. Matteo Ciccarelli & Angela Maddaloni & Jose Luis Peydro, 2015. "Trusting the Bankers: A New Look at the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 979-1002, October.
    58. Charles A. E. Goodhart & Jonathan P. Ashworth, 2012. "QE: a successful start may be running into diminishing returns," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 640-670, WINTER.
    59. Goodhart, Charles, 1989. "The Conduct of Monetary Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 293-346, June.
    60. Richard A. Werner, 2013. "Towards a More Stable and Sustainable Financial Architecture – A Discussion and Application of the Quantity Theory of Credit," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 46(3), pages 357-387.
    61. Churm, Rohan & Radia, Amar & Leake, Jeremy & Srinivasan, Sylaja & Whisker, Rishard, 2012. "The Funding for Lending Scheme," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(4), pages 306-320.
    62. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    63. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-254, April.
    64. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, December.
    65. John Driffill, 2011. "The Future Of Macroeconomics: Introductory Remarks," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(s2), pages 1-4, September.
    66. Christopher Bowdler & Amar Radia, 2012. "Unconventional monetary policy: the assessment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 603-621, WINTER.
    67. Leroy, Aurélien, 2014. "Competition and the bank lending channel in Eurozone," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 296-314.
    68. Michael A. S. Joyce & Ana Lasaosa & Ibrahim Stevens & Matthew Tong, 2011. "The Financial Market Impact of Quantitative Easing in the United Kingdom," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 113-161, September.
    69. Büyükkarabacak, Berrak & Valev, Neven T., 2010. "The role of household and business credit in banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1247-1256, June.
    70. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Clavero, Borja, 2017. "A contribution to the Quantity Theory of Disaggregated Credit," MPRA Paper 76657, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. repec:eee:ecolec:v:146:y:2018:i:c:p:26-34 is not listed on IDEAS

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:43:y:2016:i:c:p:158-176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.