IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedmsr/89.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Money, real interest rates, and output: a reinterpretation of postwar U.S. data

Author

Listed:
  • Robert B. Litterman
  • Laurence M. Weiss

Abstract

The claim that bad money drives out good is one of the oldest and most cited in economics. Economists refer to this claim as Gresham?s law. Yet despite its seemingly universal acceptance, this claim does not warrant its status as a law. We find it has no convincing explanations and many overlooked exceptions. We propose an alternative hypothesis based on the costs of using a medium of exchange at a nonpar price: small-denomination currency undervalued at the mint tends to disappear from circulation while large-denomination currency usually circulates at premium. Examining a variety of historical episodes when market and legal prices were different, we find our ?law? can explain history much better than Gresham?s.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert B. Litterman & Laurence M. Weiss, 1984. "Money, real interest rates, and output: a reinterpretation of postwar U.S. data," Staff Report 89, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:89
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/common/pub_detail.cfm?pb_autonum_id=370
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://minneapolisfed.org/research/sr/sr89.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Can the Fed Control Real Interest Rates?," NBER Chapters, in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 117-167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 250-257, May.
    3. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-115, March.
    4. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-282, June.
    5. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1981. "The real interest rate: An empirical investigation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 151-200, January.
    6. Nelson, Charles R & Schwert, G William, 1977. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation: On Testing the Hypothesis That the Real Rate of Interest is Constant," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 478-486, June.
    7. Barro, Robert J., 1976. "Rational expectations and the role of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, January.
    8. Grossman, Sanford J & Weiss, Laurence, 1982. "Heterogeneous Information and the Theory of the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 699-727, August.
    9. Garbade, Kenneth & Wachtel, Paul, 1978. "Time variation in the relationship between inflation and interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 755-765, November.
    10. Barro, Robert J, 1980. "A Capital Market in an Equilibrium Business Cycle Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(6), pages 1393-1417, September.
    11. Fama, Eugene F. & Gibbons, Michael R., 1982. "Inflation, real returns and capital investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 297-323.
    12. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    13. Sargent, Thomas J, 1978. "Estimation of Dynamic Labor Demand Schedules under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1009-1044, December.
    14. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Garcia, Rene & Perron, Pierre, 1996. "An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate under Regime Shifts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 111-125, February.
    2. Karen K. Lewis & Martin D. Evans, 1992. "Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Policy Affect Real Rates?," NBER Working Papers 4134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. KIM, Jae-Young & PARK, Woong Yong, 2018. "Some Empirical Evidence on Models of the Fisher Relation: Post-Data Comparison," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-68, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    4. Charles I. Plosser, 1989. "Money and business cycles: a real business cycle interpretation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. John B. Taylor, 1983. "Rational Expectations Models in Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 1224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Keith K.W. Chan & Toan M. Pham, 1990. "Models of Inflation Forecasts: Some Australian Evidence," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 15(1), pages 89-105, June.
    7. Pelaez, Rolando F., 1995. "The Fisher effect: Reprise," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 333-346.
    8. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Nov), pages 609-642.
    9. Telatar, Erdinc & Telatar, Funda & Ratti, Ronald A., 2003. "On the predictive power of the term structure of interest rates for future inflation changes in the presence of political instability: the Turkish economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 931-946, December.
    10. Leijonhufvud, Axel, 1983. "What would Keynes have thought of rational expectations?," Discussion Papers, Series I 177, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics.
    11. Frederic S. Mishkin & John Simon, 1995. "An Empirical Examination of the Fisher Effect in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(3), pages 217-229, September.
    12. Paraskevopoulos, Christos C. & Paschakis, John & Smithin, John, 1996. "Is monetary sovereignty an option for the small open economy?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 5-18.
    13. Kim, Chang-Jin & Kim, Jaeho, 2013. "Bayesian Inference in Regime-Switching ARMA Models with Absorbing States: The Dynamics of the Ex-Ante Real Interest Rate Under Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 51117, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Apergis, Nicholas & Miller, Stephen, 2004. "Macroeconomic rationality and Lucas' misperceptions model: further evidence from 41 countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 227-241.
    15. Crockett, Jean A., 1998. "Rational expectations, inflation and the nominal interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 349-363.
    16. Hiroshi Yoshikawa, 1993. "Monetary Policy and the Real Economy in Japan," NBER Chapters, in: Japanese Monetary Policy, pages 121-159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. McCallum, Bennett T., 1990. "Inflation: Theory and evidence," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 963-1012, Elsevier.
    18. Antoine d'Autume, 1986. "Les anticipations rationnelles dans l'analyse macro-économique," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(2), pages 243-284.
    19. Cihan Yalcin & Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu, 2000. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates : Does It Tell About Future Inflation," Discussion Papers 0002, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    20. Fujihara, Roger A. & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1996. "International linkages between short-term real interest rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 451-473.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:89. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jannelle Ruswick (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cfrbmus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.