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Quantitative Easing:a Sceptical Survey

Abstract

Evaluation of quantitative easing (QE) is difficult as it is only used in response to severe and unusual economic difficulties. Despite this, we argue that two main conclusions can be drawn from a sceptical reading of the evidence. First, large-scale asset purchases reduce government bond rates, especially at the longer end of the yield curve. However, this effect may be temporary and is small if bond rates are already low, while initial waves of QE are more effective than subsequent programmes. Second, QE appears to have been effective in late 2008 and 2009, preventing even larger declines in output and inflation than were experienced. We argue that the literature is limited, relying on similar methodologies and largely originating in central banks. Exploration of alternative approaches to QE would be useful in widening an evidence base that is currently too narrow. Copyright 2012, Oxford University Press.

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Paper provided by University of Bath, Department of Economics in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number 32987.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:eid:wpaper:32987
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Keywords: quantitative easing (qe); financial crisis;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
  • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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  1. Bridges, Jonathan & Thomas, Ryland, 2012. "The impact of QE on the UK economy – some supportive monetarist arithmetic," Bank of England working papers 442, Bank of England.
  2. George Kapetanios & Haroon Mumtaz & Ibrahim Stevens & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "Assessing the Economy‐wide Effects of Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages F316-F347, November.
  3. Urszula Szczerbowicz, 2011. "Are Unconventional Monetary Policies Effective?," Working Papers CELEG 1107, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
  4. Michael A. S. Joyce & Ana Lasaosa & Ibrahim Stevens & Matthew Tong, 2011. "The Financial Market Impact of Quantitative Easing in the United Kingdom," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 113-161, September.
  5. Jack Meaning & Feng Zhu, 2011. "The impact of recent central bank asset purchase programmes," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  6. Eric T. Swanson, 2011. "Let's Twist Again: A High-Frequency Event-Study Analysis of Operation Twist and Its Implications for QE2," 2011 Meeting Papers 982, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Francis Breedon & Jagjit S. Chadha & Alex Waters, 2012. "The Financial Market Impact of UK Quantitative Easing," Studies in Economics 1211, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  8. Peersman, Gert, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 8348, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Andre Meier, 2009. "Panacea, Curse, or Nonevent? Unconventional Monetary Policy in the United Kingdom," IMF Working Papers 09/163, International Monetary Fund.
  10. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 3-46, 02.
  11. Christopher J. Neely, 2010. "The large scale asset purchases had large international effects," Working Papers 2010-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  12. Baumeister, Christiane & Benati, Luca, 2010. "Unconventional monetary policy and the great recession - Estimating the impact of a compression in the yield spread at the zero lower bound," Working Paper Series 1258, European Central Bank.
  13. Jonathan H. Wright, 2011. "What does Monetary Policy do to Long-Term Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound?," NBER Working Papers 17154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Joseph Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian Sack, 2011. "The Financial Market Effects of the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 3-43, March.
  15. Stefania D'Amico & Thomas B. King, 2010. "Flow and stock effects of large-scale Treasury purchases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Hess Chung & Jean‐Philippe Laforte & David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2012. "Have We Underestimated the Likelihood and Severity of Zero Lower Bound Events?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 47-82, 02.
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Cited by:

  1. Florackis, Chris & Giorgioni, Gianluigi & Kostakis, Alexandros & Milas, Costas, 2014. "On stock market illiquidity and real-time GDP growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 210-229.
  2. David Cobham, 2013. "Monetary policy under the Labour government 1997-2010: the first 13 years of the MPC," Heriot-Watt University Economics Discussion Papers 1302, Department of Economics, School of Management and Languages, Heriot Watt University.
  3. Francis Breedon & Jagjit S. Chadha & Alex Waters, 2012. "The financial market impact of UK quantitative easing," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 702-728, WINTER.
  4. David Cobham, 2013. "Monetary policy under the Labour government: the first 13 years of the MPC," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(1), pages 47-70, SPRING.
  5. Christopher Bowdler & Amar Radia, 2012. "Unconventional monetary policy: the assessment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 603-621, WINTER.
  6. Michael Ellington & Costas Milas, 2014. "Global liquidity, money growth and UK inflation," Working Paper Series 21_14, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  7. Rod Tyers, 2014. "International Effects of China’s Rise and Transition: Neoclassical and Keynesian Perspectives," CAMA Working Papers 2014-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  8. Manuel Sanchez, 2016. "The Powers and Limits of Monetary Policy," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 36(2), pages 269-278, Spring/Su.
  9. Issing, Otmar, 2013. "A new paradigm for monetary policy?," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/02, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  10. Massimo Guidolin & Alexei G. Orlov & Manuela Pedio, 2015. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Corporate Bonds under Regime Shifts," Working Papers 562, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  11. Mamatzakis, E & bermpei, t, 2014. "What drives investment bank performance? the role of risk, liquidity and fees prior to and during the crisis," MPRA Paper 60196, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Steeley, James M., 2015. "The side effects of quantitative easing: Evidence from the UK bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 303-336.
  13. Steeley, James M. & Matyushkin, Alexander, 2015. "The effects of quantitative easing on the volatility of the gilt-edged market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 113-128.

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