The impact of QE on the UK economy – some supportive monetarist arithmetic
This paper uses a simple money demand and supply framework to estimate the impact of quantitative easing (QE) on asset prices and nominal spending. We use standard money accounting to try to establish the impact of asset purchases on broad money holdings. We show that the initial impact of £200 billion of asset purchases on the money supply was partially offset by other ‘shocks’ to the money supply. Some of these offsets may have been the indirect result of QE. Our central case estimate is that QE boosted the broad money supply by £122 billion or 8%. We apply our estimates of the impact of QE on the money supply to a set of ‘monetarist’ econometric models that articulate the extent to which asset prices and spending need to adjust to make the demand for money consistent with the increased broad money supply associated with QE. Our preferred, central case estimate is that an 8% increase in money holdings may have pushed down on yields by an average of around 150 basis points in 2010 and increased asset values by approximately 20%. This in turn would have had a peak impact on output of 2% by the start of 2011, with an impact on inflation of 1 percentage point around a year later. These estimates are necessarily uncertain and we show the sensitivity of our results to different assumptions about the size of the shock to the money supply and the nature of the transmission mechanism.
|Date of creation:||27 Jan 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +44 (0)171 601 4030
Fax: +44 (0)171 601 5196
Web page: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Thomas, Ryland & Hills, Sally & Dimsdale, Nicholas, 2010. "The UK recession in context — what do three centuries of data tell us?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 50(4), pages 277-291.
- Julia Thomas & Aubhik Khan, 2012.
"Inflation and Interest Rates with Endogenous Market Segmentation,"
2012 Meeting Papers
1070, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Julia K. Thomas & Aubhik Khan, 2005. "Inflation and Interest Rates with Endogenous Market Segmentation," 2005 Meeting Papers 170, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Aubhik Khan & Julia Thomas, 2007. "Inflation and interest rates with endogenous market segmentation," Working Papers 07-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Vasco Curdia & Michael Woodford, 2010.
"The Central-Bank Balance Sheet as an Instrument of Monetary Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
16208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cúrdia, Vasco & Woodford, Michael, 2011. "The central-bank balance sheet as an instrument of monetarypolicy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 54-79, January.
- Vasco Curdia & Michael Woodford, 2010. "The Central Bank Balance Sheet as an Instrument of Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 0910-16, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
- Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2010. "The central-bank balance sheet as an instrument of monetary policy," Staff Reports 463, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Vasco Curdia & Michael Woodford, . "The Central-Bank Balance Sheet as an Instrument of Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 0910-19, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
- Michael Woodford & Vasco Curdia, 2010. "The Central Bank's Balance Sheet as an Instrument of Monetary Policy," 2010 Meeting Papers 136, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Baumeister, Christiane & Benati, Luca, 2010. "Unconventional monetary policy and the great recession - Estimating the impact of a compression in the yield spread at the zero lower bound," Working Paper Series 1258, European Central Bank.
- Kapetanios, George & Mumtaz, Haroon & Stevens, Ibrahim & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2012.
"Assessing the economy-wide effects of quantitative easing,"
Bank of England working papers
443, Bank of England.
- George Kapetanios & Haroon Mumtaz & Ibrahim Stevens & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "Assessing the Economy‐wide Effects of Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages F316-F347, November.
- Joyce, Michael & Lasaosa, Ana & Stevens , Ibrahim & Tong, Matthew, 2010. "The financial market impact of quantitative easing," Bank of England working papers 393, Bank of England.
- Mellander, Erik & Vredin, A & Warne, A, 1992. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 369-94, Oct.-Dec..
- Joseph Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian Sack, 2011.
"Large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve: did they work?,"
Economic Policy Review,
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 41-59.
- Joseph Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian Sack, 2010. "Large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve: did they work?," Staff Reports 441, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Shamik Dhar & Darren Pain & Ryland Thomas, 2000. "A small structural empirical model of the UK monetary transmission mechanism," Bank of England working papers 113, Bank of England.
- Bridges, Jonathan & Rossiter, Neil & Thomas, Ryland, 2011. "Understanding the recent weakness in broad money growth," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(1), pages 22-35.
- Harrison, Richard, 2012. "Asset purchase policy at the effective lower bound for interest rates," Bank of England working papers 444, Bank of England.
- Lewis, Mervyn K. & Mizen, Paul D., 2000. "Monetary Economics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198290629, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0442. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Publications Team)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.