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The UK recession in context — what do three centuries of data tell us?

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The Quarterly Bulletin has a long tradition of using historical data to help analyse the latest developments in the UK economy. To mark the Bulletin’s 50th anniversary, this article places the recent UK recession in a long-run historical context. It draws on the extensive literature on UK economic history and analyses a wide range of macroeconomic and financial data going back to the 18th century. The UK economy has undergone major structural change over this period but such historical comparisons can provide lessons for the current economic situation.

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  • Thomas, Ryland & Hills, Sally & Dimsdale, Nicholas, 2010. "The UK recession in context — what do three centuries of data tell us?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 50(4), pages 277-291.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:qbullt:0032
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mitchell, J. & Solomou, S. & Weale, M., 2009. "Monthly and Quarterly GDP Estimates for Interwar Britain," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0949, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. repec:nsr:niesrd:348 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Benito, Andrew & Neiss, Katharine & Price, Simon & Rachel, Lukasz, 2010. "The impact of the financial crisis on supply," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 50(2), pages 104-114.
    4. Luis A. V. Catão & Solomos N. Solomou, 2005. "Effective Exchange Rates and the Classical Gold Standard Adjustment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 1259-1275.
    5. Janssen, Norbert & Nolan, Charles & Thomas, Ryland, 2002. "Money, Debt and Prices in the United Kingdom, 1705-1996," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 69(275), pages 461-479, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefano d'Addona & Ilaria Musumeci, 2013. "The British opt-out from the European Monetary Union: empirical evidence from monetary policy rules," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 1783-1795.
    2. Leandro Prados De La Escosura, 2016. "Economic freedom in the long run: evidence from OECD countries (1850–2007)," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, pages 435-468.
    3. Knott, Samuel & Richardson, Peter & Rismanchi, Katie & Sen, Kallol, 2014. "Financial Stability Paper 31: Understanding the fair value of banks’ loans," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 31, Bank of England.
    4. Harvey, David I. & Kellard, Neil M. & Madsen, Jakob B. & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Long-Run Commodity Prices, Economic Growth, and Interest Rates: 17th Century to the Present Day," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 57-70.
    5. Butt, Nicholas & Domit, Silvia & McLeay, Michael & Thomas, Ryland & Kirkham, Lewis, 2012. "What can the money data tell us about the impact of QE?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(4), pages 321-331.
    6. Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2015. "Economic Impossibilities for our Grandchildren?," NBER Working Papers 21807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ruta Gentvilaite & Astrid Kander & Paul Warde, 2014. "The Role of Energy Quality in Shaping Long-Term Energy Intensity in Europe," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(1), pages 1-21, December.
    8. William Roberds, 2016. "Review of Making Money: Coin, Currency, and the Coming of Capitalism by Christine Desan," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, pages 906-921.
    9. Zakaria Babutsidze & Maurizio Iacopetta, 2016. "Innovation, growth and financial markets," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 1-24, March.
    10. Peter Sephton & Janelle Mann, 2016. "Compelling Evidence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve in the United Kingdom," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, pages 301-315.
    11. Knarik Ayvazyan & Teresa Daban Sanchez, 2015. "Spillovers from Global and Regional Shocks to Armenia," IMF Working Papers 15/241, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Anson, Mike & Bhola, David & Kang, Miao & Thomas, Ryland, 2017. "The Bank of England as lender of last resort: New historical evidence from daily transactional data," eabh Papers 17-03, The European Association for Banking and Financial History (EABH).
    13. Spaenjers , Christophe & Goetzmann , William, 2014. "The Economics of Aesthetics and Three Centuries of Art Price Records," Les Cahiers de Recherche 1055, HEC Paris.
    14. Byrnes, Liam & Brown, Colin & Foster, John & Wagner, Liam D., 2013. "Australian renewable energy policy: Barriers and challenges," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, pages 711-721.
    15. Chowla, Shiv & Quaglietti, Lucia & Rachel, Lukasz, 2014. "How have world shocks affected the UK economy?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(2), pages 167-179.
    16. Bridges, Jonathan & Rossiter, Neil & Thomas, Ryland, 2011. "Understanding the recent weakness in broad money growth," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(1), pages 22-35.
    17. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Marinko Skare, 2014. "Long Memory in UK Real GDP, 1851-2013: An ARFIMA-FIGARCH Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1395, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    18. Spaenjers , Christophe & Goetzmann , William, 2014. "The Economics of Aesthetics and Three Centuries of Art Price Records," Les Cahiers de Recherche 1055, HEC Paris.
    19. McLeay, Michael & Radia, Amar & Thomas, Ryland, 2014. "Money creation in the modern economy," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(1), pages 14-27.
    20. Bridges, Jonathan & Thomas, Ryland, 2012. "The impact of QE on the UK economy – some supportive monetarist arithmetic," Bank of England working papers 442, Bank of England.
    21. John Foster, 2014. "Energy, knowledge and economic growth," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, pages 209-238.
    22. Mike Anson & David Bholat Author-Name-First: David & Miao Kang & Ryland Thomas, 2017. "The Bank of England as Lender of Last Resort: New historical evidence from daily transactional data," Working Papers 0117, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).

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