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Evaluating the Dynamic Effects of Active Labour Policies in Italy

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  • Carlo Altavilla
  • Floro Ernesto Caroleo

Abstract

This paper analyses whether active labour market programmes (ALMP) have differing effects on unemployment and employment dynamics according to the particular region in which they are implemented. To this end, it analyses alternative theoretical and econometric models thought to capture the possible effects of active labour market policies on labour force dynamics. The econometric methodologies implemented are the generalized method of moment (GMM) and the panel vector autoregression (P-VAR). The evidence yielded by the GMM models suggests that the effects of different ALMP on unemployment are dissimilar across the Italian regions. It follows that some active programmes are likely to have a greater effect in the South than in the North. The results of the P-VAR models estimated are synthesised by impulse response analysis and forecast error variance decomposition. The impulse response analysis suggests that an increase in total ALMP gives rise to (i) a decrease in the unemployment rate and (ii) a significant increase in labour force participation. More interestingly, the results obtained from the error variance decomposition analysis show that unemployment movements are not driven by shocks in the ALMP and that, especially in the northern regions, atypical contracts shocks account for a substantial portion of unemployment dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo Altavilla & Floro Ernesto Caroleo, 2006. "Evaluating the Dynamic Effects of Active Labour Policies in Italy," Discussion Papers 8_2006, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:prt:dpaper:8_2006
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    Cited by:

    1. Goulas, Eleftherios & Zervoyianni, Athina, 2018. "Active labour-market policies and output growth: Is there a causal relationship?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-14.
    2. Marianna Belloc & Riccardo Tilli, 2013. "Unemployment by gender and gender catching-up: Empirical evidence from the Italian regions," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 92(3), pages 481-494, August.
    3. Juan González Alegre, 2017. "The Efficiency of Active Labour Market Policies in the European Union: Does It Make Sense Increasing the Bill?," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 67(3), pages 333-357, September.
    4. Rüdiger Wapler & Daniel Werner & Katja Wolf, 2018. "Active labour market policies in Germany: do regional labour markets benefit?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(51), pages 5561-5578, November.
    5. Carlo Altavilla & Floro Ernesto Caroleo, 2013. "Asymmetric Effects of National-based Active Labour Market Policies," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(9), pages 1482-1506, October.
    6. Altavilla, Carlo & Caroleo, Floro Ernesto, 2009. "Unintended Effects of National-based Active Labour Market Policies," IZA Discussion Papers 4045, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ALMP; GMM; P-VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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