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Financial crisis and quantitative easing: can broad money tell us anything?

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  • David Cobham
  • Yue Kang

Abstract

When Bank of England (and the Federal Reserve Board) introduced their quantitative easing (QE) operations they emphasised the effects on money and credit, but much of their empirical research on the effects of QE focuses on long-term interest rates. We use a flow of funds matrix with an independent central bank to show the implications of QE and other monetary developments, and argue that the financial crisis, the fiscal expansion and QE are likely to have constituted major exogenous shocks to money and credit in the UK which could not be digested immediately by the usual adjustment mechanisms. We present regressions of a reduced form model which considers the growth of nominal spending as determined by the growth of nominal money and other variables. These results suggest that money was not important during the Great Moderation but has had a much larger role in the period of the crisis and QE. We then use these estimates to illustrate the effects of the financial crisis and QE. We conclude that it would be useful to incorporate money and/or credit in wider macroeconometric models of the UK economy.

Suggested Citation

  • David Cobham & Yue Kang, 2012. "Financial crisis and quantitative easing: can broad money tell us anything?," Heriot-Watt University Economics Discussion Papers 1206, Department of Economics, School of Management and Languages, Heriot Watt University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hwe:hwuedp:1206
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    1. Bell, Venetia & Young, Garry, 2010. "Understanding the weakness of bank lending," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 50(4), pages 311-320.
    2. Joyce, Michael & Tong, Matthew & Woods, Robert, 2011. "The United Kingdom’s quantitative easing policy: design, operation and impact," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(3), pages 200-212.
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    7. Joyce, Michael & Lasaosa, Ana & Stevens , Ibrahim & Tong, Matthew, 2010. "The financial market impact of quantitative easing," Bank of England working papers 393, Bank of England.
    8. Aiyar, Shekhar, 2011. "How did the crisis in international funding markets affect bank lending? Balance sheet evidence from the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 424, Bank of England.
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    10. Charles Goodhart, 1989. "Money, Information and Uncertainty: 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262071223, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:mbr:jmonec:v:9:y:2014:i:4:p:73-108 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. James Cloyne & Ryland Thomas & Alex Tuckett & Samuel Wills, 2015. "An Empirical Sectoral Model of Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Impact of QE," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83, pages 51-82, September.
    3. Richard G. Anderson & Marcelle Chauvet & Barry Jones, 2015. "Nonlinear Relationship Between Permanent and Transitory Components of Monetary Aggregates and the Economy," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1-2), pages 228-254, February.
    4. David Cobham, 2015. "Monetary Analysis and Monetary Policy Frameworks: Introduction," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83, pages 1-4, September.
    5. David, Cobham, 2013. "Monetary policy under the Labour government 1997- 2010: the first 13 years of the MPC," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-23, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    6. Cloyne, James & Thomas, Ryland & Tuckett, Alex & Wills, Samuel, 2015. "A sectoral framework for analyzing money, credit and unconventional monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 556, Bank of England.
    7. Jakub Janus, 2016. "The Transmission Mechanism Of Unconventional Monetary Policy," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 7(1), pages 7-21, March.
    8. David Cobham, 2013. "Monetary policy under the Labour government: the first 13 years of the MPC," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(1), pages 47-70, SPRING.
    9. Philippine Cour-Thimann & Bernhard Winkler, 2012. "The ECB’s non-standard monetary policy measures: the role of institutional factors and financial structure," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 765-803, WINTER.
    10. Ryan-Collins, Josh & Werner, Richard A. & Castle, Jennifer, 2016. "A half-century diversion of monetary policy? An empirical horse-race to identify the UK variable most likely to deliver the desired nominal GDP growth rate," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 158-176.

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