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Nonlinear relationship between permanent and transitory components of monetary aggregates and the economy

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  • Richard G. Anderson
  • Barry E. Jones
  • Marcelle Chauvet

Abstract

This paper uses several methods to study the interrelationship among Divisia monetary aggregates, prices, and income, allowing for nonstationary, nonlinearities, asymmetries, and time-varying relationships among the series. We propose a multivariate regime switching unobserved components model to obtain transitory and permanent components for each series, allowing for potential recurrent and structural changes in their dynamics. Each component follows distinct two-state Markov processes representing low or high phases. Since the lead-lag relationship between the phases can vary over time, rather than preimposing a structure to their linkages, the proposed flexible framework enables us to study their specific lead-lag relationship over each one of their cycles and over each U.S. recession in the last 40 years. The decomposition of the series into permanent and transitory components reveals striking results. First, we find a strong nonlinear association between the components of money and prices – all low phases of the transitory component of prices were preceded by tight transitory and permanent money phases. We also find that most recessions were preceded by tight money phases (its cyclical and permanent components) and high transitory price phases (with the exception of the 2001 and 2009-2010 recessions). In addition, all recessions were associated with a decrease in transitory and permanent income.>

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2013-018.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2013-018
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Keywords: Debt ; Inflation (Finance) ; Banks and banking; Central;

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  16. Barnett, William A., 2012. "Getting it Wrong: How Faulty Monetary Statistics Undermine the Fed, the Financial System, and the Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262516888, December.
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Cited by:

  1. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2013. "Instability: Monetary and Real," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 830, Boston College Department of Economics.
  2. Apostolos Serletis & Khandokar Istiak, 2015. "Are the Responses of the U.S. Economy Asymmetric to Positive and Negative Money Supply Shocks?," Working Papers 2015-17, Department of Economics, University of Calgary, revised 10 Aug 2015.
  3. Xu, Bin & Lin, Boqiang, 2016. "Assessing CO2 emissions in China’s iron and steel industry: A dynamic vector autoregression model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 375-386.
  4. Allan H. Meltzer, 2014. "Current Lessons from the Past: How the Fed Repeats Its History," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 34(3), pages 519-539, Fall.
  5. Fleissig, Adrian R. & Jones, Barry E., 2015. "The impact of commercial sweeping on the demand for monetary assets during the Great Recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 412-422.
  6. Xu, Bin & Lin, Boqiang, 2015. "Carbon dioxide emissions reduction in China's transport sector: A dynamic VAR (vector autoregression) approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 486-495.

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