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Comparison of simple sum and Divisia monetary aggregates in GDP forecasting: a support vector machines approach

Author

Listed:
  • Periklis Gogas

    () (Democritus University of Thrace)

  • Theophilos Papadimitriou

    () (Democritus University of Thrace)

  • Elvira Takli

    () (Democritus University of Thrace)

Abstract

In this study we compare the forecasting ability of the simple sum and Divisia monetary aggregates with respect to U.S. gross domestic product. We use two alternative Divisia aggregates, the series produced by the Center for Financial Stability (CFS Divisia) and the ones produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (MSI Divisia). The empirical analysis is done within a machine learning framework employing a Support Vector Regression (SVR) model equipped with two kernels: the linear and the radial basis function kernel. Our training data span the period from 1967Q1 to 2007Q4 and the out-of-sample forecasts are performed on a one quarter ahead forecasting horizon on the period 2008Q1 to 2011Q4. Our tests show that the Divisia monetary aggregates are superior to the simple sum monetary aggregates in terms of standard forecast evaluation statistics.

Suggested Citation

  • Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Elvira Takli, 2013. "Comparison of simple sum and Divisia monetary aggregates in GDP forecasting: a support vector machines approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1101-1115.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-13-00134
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos, 2015. "Forecasting the U.S. real house price index," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, pages 259-267.
    2. William A. Barnett & Biyan Tang, 2016. "Chinese Divisia Monetary Index and GDP Nowcasting," Open Economies Review, Springer, pages 825-849.
    3. Seitz, Franz & Baumann, Ursel & Albuquerque, Bruno, 2015. "The information content of money and credit for US activity," Working Paper Series 1803, European Central Bank.
    4. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-473 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel & Seitz, Franz, 2016. "What does money and credit tell us about real activity in the United States?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 328-347.
    6. Ioannis Praggidis & Periklis Gogas & Vasilios Plakandaras & Theophilos Papadimitriou, 2013. "Fiscal shocks and asymmetric effects: a comparative analysis," Papers 1312.2693, arXiv.org.
    7. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20141803 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP forecasting; SVR; Simple Sum; Divisia;

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

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