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Measurement Error in Monetary Aggregates: A Markov Switching Factor Approach

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  • Barnett, William A.
  • Chauvet, Marcelle
  • Tierney, Heather L. R.

Abstract

This paper compares the different dynamics of simple sum monetary aggregates and the Divisia indexes over time, over the business cycle, and across high and low inflation and interest rate phases. Although the traditional comparison of the series may suggest that they share similar dynamics, there are important differences during certain times and around turning points that can not be evaluated by their average behavior. We use a factor model with regime switching that offers several ways in which these differences can be analyzed. The model separates out the common movements underlying the monetary aggregate indexes, summarized in the dynamic factor, from individual variations in each one series, captured by the idiosyncratic terms. The idiosyncratic terms and the measurement errors represent exactly where the monetary indexes differ. We find several new results. In general, the idiosyncratic terms for both the simple sum aggregates and the Divisia indexes display a business cycle pattern, especially since 1980. They generally rise around the end of high interest rate phases – a couple of quarters before the beginning of recessions – and fall during recessions to subsequently converge to their average in the beginning of expansions. We also find that the major differences between the simple sum aggregates and Divisia indexes occur around the beginning and end of economic recessions, and during some high interest rate phases.

Suggested Citation

  • Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle & Tierney, Heather L. R., 2007. "Measurement Error in Monetary Aggregates: A Markov Switching Factor Approach," MPRA Paper 5770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5770
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Barnett, William A. & Erwin Diewert, W. & Zellner, Arnold, 2011. "Introduction to measurement with theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(1), pages 1-5, March.
    2. Jawadi, Fredj & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "Money demand in the euro area, the US and the UK: Assessing the role of nonlinearity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 507-515.
    3. Chin-Hong, Puah & Lee-Chea, Hiew, 2010. "Financial Liberalization, Weighted Monetary Aggregates and Money Demand in Indonesia," MPRA Paper 31731, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Richard G. Anderson & Marcelle Chauvet & Barry Jones, 2015. "Nonlinear Relationship Between Permanent and Transitory Components of Monetary Aggregates and the Economy," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1-2), pages 228-254, February.
    5. Ryan S. Mattson & Philippe De Peretti, 2014. "Investigating the Role of Real Divisia Money in Persistence-Robust Econometric Models," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00984827, HAL.
    6. Fleissig, Adrian R. & Jones, Barry E., 2015. "The impact of commercial sweeping on the demand for monetary assets during the Great Recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 412-422.
    7. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle, 2008. "The End of the Great Moderation: “We told you so.”," MPRA Paper 11642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet, 2011. "International Financial Aggregation and Index Number Theory: A Chronological Half-Century Empirical Overview," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Aggregation And Index Number Theory, chapter 1, pages 1-51 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle, 2011. "How better monetary statistics could have signaled the financial crisis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(1), pages 6-23, March.
    10. repec:spr:annopr:v:262:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10479-016-2138-z is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Fredj Jawadi & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Consumption and Wealth in the US, the UK and the Euro Area:A Nonlinear Investigation," NIPE Working Papers 24/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Measurement Error; Divisia Index; Aggregation; State Space; Markov Switching; Monetary Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

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