IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v89y2018icp127-138.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

“Risky” monetary aggregates for the UK and US

Author

Listed:
  • Binner, Jane M.
  • Chaudhry, Sajid
  • Kelly, Logan
  • Swofford, James L.

Abstract

We extend the scope of monetary aggregation beyond capital certain assets that make up central bank data sets and identify groups of assets that form monetary aggregates composed of both capital certain and risky, capital uncertain, assets. We construct monetary aggregates for the US and UK using a superlative index and relax a key assumption of the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM), a one year planning horizon, by using forecasted returns on risky assets. Our new risky monetary aggregates perform well in VAR tests. We recommended exploring risky assets as providers of liquidity services in future research on this topic.

Suggested Citation

  • Binner, Jane M. & Chaudhry, Sajid & Kelly, Logan & Swofford, James L., 2018. "“Risky” monetary aggregates for the UK and US," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 127-138.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:89:y:2018:i:c:p:127-138
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2018.08.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560618303826
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2018.08.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William A. Barnett & Shu Wu, 2011. "On User Costs of Risky Monetary Assets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Aggregation And Index Number Theory, chapter 3, pages 85-105, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    3. Douglas Fisher & Adrian Fleissig, 1994. "Money demand in a flexible dynamic Fourier expenditure system," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 117-128.
    4. William A. Barnett, 2000. "Economic Monetary Aggregates: An Application of Index Number and Aggregation Theory," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 11-48, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    5. Binner, Jane M. & Bissoondeeal, Rakesh K. & Elger, C. Thomas & Jones, Barry E. & Mullineux, Andrew W., 2009. "Admissible monetary aggregates for the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 99-114, February.
    6. John W. Keating & Logan J. Kelly & A. Lee Smith & Victor J. Valcarcel, 2019. "A Model of Monetary Policy Shocks for Financial Crises and Normal Conditions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(1), pages 227-259, February.
    7. Michael T. Belongia, 2000. "Consequences of Money Stock Mismeasurement: Evidence from Three Countries," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Michael T. Belongia & Jane M. Binner (ed.), Divisia Monetary Aggregates, chapter 13, pages 292-312, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Keating, John W. & Kelly, Logan J. & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2014. "Solving the price puzzle with an alternative indicator of monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 188-194.
    9. Swofford, James L & Whitney, Gerald A, 1988. "Comparison of Nonparametric Tests of Weak Separability for Annual and Quarterly Data on Consumption, Leisure, and Money," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(2), pages 241-246, April.
    10. William A. Barnett, 2000. "The Optimal Level of Monetary Aggregation," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 125-149, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    11. Barnett, William A. & Liu, Yi & Jensen, Mark, 1997. "Capm Risk Adjustment For Exact Aggregation Over Financial Assets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(2), pages 485-512, June.
    12. Swofford, James L & Whitney, Gerald A, 1987. "Nonparametric Tests of Utility Maximization and Weak Separability for Consumption, Leisure and Money," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 458-464, August.
    13. Duca, John V, 2000. "Financial Technology Shocks and the Case of the Missing M2," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 820-839, November.
    14. Per Hjertstrand & James Swofford, 2014. "Are the choices of people stochastically rational? A stochastic test of the number of revealed preference violations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1495-1519, June.
    15. Caves, Douglas W & Christensen, Laurits R & Diewert, W Erwin, 1982. "The Economic Theory of Index Numbers and the Measurement of Input, Output, and Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1393-1414, November.
    16. William A. Barnett & Seungmook Choi, 2004. "A Monte Carlo Study of Tests of Blockwise Weak Separability," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Functional Structure and Approximation in Econometrics, pages 257-287, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    17. Douglas Fisher & Adrian Fleissig, 1994. "Money demand in a flexible dynamic Fourier expenditure system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 117-128.
    18. Anderson, Richard G. & Bordo, Michael & Duca, John V., 2017. "Money and velocity during financial crises: From the great depression to the great recession," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 32-49.
    19. Drake, Leigh & Fleissig, Adrian R & Mullineux, Andy, 1999. "Are "Risky Assets" Substitutes for "Monetary Assets"?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(3), pages 510-526, July.
    20. John V. Duca, 1994. "Would the addition of bond or equity funds make M2 a better indicator of nominal GDP?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 1-14.
    21. William A. Barnett & Paul A. Spindt, 1980. "The information content of Divisia monetary quantity indices," Special Studies Papers 146, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Milton Friedman & Anna Jacobson Schwartz, 1970. "Introduction to "Monetary Statistics of the United States: Estimates, Sources, Methods"," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Statistics of the United States: Estimates, Sources, Methods, pages 1-85, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. "The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-790, July.
    24. Barnett, William A. & Spindt, Paul A., 1979. "The velocity behavior and information content of Divisia monetary aggregates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 51-57.
    25. Drake, Leigh & Chrystal, K Alec, 1994. "Company-Sector Money Demand: New Evidence on the Existence of a Stable Long-Run Relationship for the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(3), pages 479-494, August.
    26. David L. Edgerton, 1997. "Weak Separability and the Estimation of Elasticities in Multistage Demand Systems," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 62-79.
    27. Horne, Jocelyn & Martin, Vance L, 1989. "Weighted Monetary Aggregates: An Empirical Study Using Australian Monetary Data, 1969-1987," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(53), pages 181-200, December.
    28. Robert Fluri & Piyu Yue, 1991. "Divisia monetary services indexes for Switzerland: are they useful for monetary targeting?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 19-33.
    29. de PERETTI, PHILIPPE, 2005. "Testing The Significance Of The Departures From Utility Maximization," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 372-397, June.
    30. William Barnett & Shu Wu, 2004. "Intertemporally non-separable monetary-asset risk adjustment and aggregation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(13), pages 1-9.
    31. Michael T. Belongia & Jane M. Binner (ed.), 2000. "Divisia Monetary Aggregates," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-28823-2.
    32. Swofford, James L & Whitney, Gerald A, 1991. "The Composition and Construction of Monetary Aggregates," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(4), pages 752-761, October.
    33. Leigh Drake & Adrian R. Fleissig & James L. Swofford, 2003. "A Semi--nonparametric Approach to the Demand for UK Monetary Assets," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 70(277), pages 99-120, February.
    34. Holmström, Bengt, 2013. "Inside and Outside Liquidity," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262518536, December.
    35. Ersal-Kiziler, Eylem & Nguyen, Ha, 2016. "Euro currency risk and the geography of debt flows to peripheral EMU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-20.
    36. Elger Thomas & Binner Jane M., 2004. "The UK Household Sector Demand for Risky Money," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-22, March.
    37. Philippe de Peretti, 2005. "Testing The Significance Of The Departures From Utility Maximization," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00646801, HAL.
    38. Fleissig, Adrian R & Swofford, James L, 1997. "Dynamic Asymptotically Ideal Models and Finite Approximation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(4), pages 482-492, October.
    39. Diewert, W Erwin, 1978. "Superlative Index Numbers and Consistency in Aggregation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(4), pages 883-900, July.
    40. Richard G. Anderson & Barry E. Jones & Travis D. Nesmith, 1996. "Monetary aggregation theory and statistical index numbers," Working Papers 1996-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    41. Ewis, Nabil A & Fisher, Douglas, 1984. "The Translog Utility Function and the Demand for Money in the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 34-52, February.
    42. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, April.
    43. Fleissig, Adrian & Swofford, James L., 1996. "A dynamic asymptotically ideal model of money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 371-380, April.
    44. William A. Barnett, 2000. "The User Cost of Money," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 6-10, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    45. Patterson, Kerry D, 1991. "A Non-parametric Analysis of Personal Sector Decisions on Consumption, Liquid Assets and Leisure," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(408), pages 1103-1116, September.
    46. Hal R. Varian, 1983. "Non-parametric Tests of Consumer Behaviour," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 50(1), pages 99-110.
    47. Belongia, Michael T, 1996. "Measurement Matters: Recent Results from Monetary Economics Reexamined," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 1065-1083, October.
    48. Richard G. Anderson & Barry E. Jones, 2011. "A comprehensive revision of the U.S. monetary services (divisia) indexes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(Sep), pages 325-360.
    49. Milton Friedman & Anna Jacobson Schwartz, 1970. "Monetary Statistics of the United States: Estimates, Sources, Methods," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie70-1, March.
    50. Diewert, W. E., 1976. "Exact and superlative index numbers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-145, May.
    51. Spencer, Peter, 1997. "Monetary integration and currency substitution in the EMS: The case for a European monetary aggregate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1403-1419, July.
    52. Santiago Carbó Valverde & Sujit Chakravorti & Francisco Rodríguez Fernández, 2016. "The Role of Interchange Fees in Two-Sided Markets: An Empirical Investigation on Payment Cards," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(2), pages 367-381, May.
    53. Bailey, R. W. & Driscoll, M. J. & Ford, J. L. & Mullineux, A. W., 1982. "The information content of monetary aggregates in the U.K," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 61-67.
    54. Ersal-Kiziler,Eylem & Nguyen,Ha Minh, 2016. "Euro currency risk and the geography of debt flows to peripheral European monetary union members," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7738, The World Bank.
    55. Barnett,William A. & Chiarella,Carl & Keen,Steve & Marks,Robert & Schnabl,Hermann (ed.), 2000. "Commerce, Complexity, and Evolution," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521620307.
    56. Per Hjertstrand & James L. Swofford & Gerald A. Whitney, 2016. "Mixed Integer Programming Revealed Preference Tests of Utility Maximization and Weak Separability of Consumption, Leisure, and Money," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1547-1561, October.
    57. Varian, Hal R., 1985. "Non-parametric analysis of optimizing behavior with measurement error," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 445-458.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kostyantyn Anatolievich Malyshenko & Majid Mohammad Shafiee & Vadim Anatolievich Malyshenko & Marina Viktorovna Anashkina, 2023. "Dynamics of the securities market in the information asymmetry context: developing a methodology for emerging securities markets," Papers 2307.04140, arXiv.org.
    2. El-Shagi, Makram & Tochkov, Kiril, 2022. "Shadow of the colossus: Euro area spillovers and monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    3. Ahmed, Rizwan & ullah, Subhan & Hudson, Robert & Gregoriou, Andros, 2023. "The implications of liquidity ratios: Evidence from Pakistan stock exchange limited," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 235-243.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Binner, Jane M. & Bissoondeeal, Rakesh K. & Elger, C. Thomas & Jones, Barry E. & Mullineux, Andrew W., 2009. "Admissible monetary aggregates for the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 99-114, February.
    2. Drake, Leigh & Fleissig, Adrian R., 2010. "Substitution between monetary assets and consumer goods: New evidence on the monetary transmission mechanism," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2811-2821, November.
    3. Anderson, Richard G. & Duca, John V. & Fleissig, Adrian R. & Jones, Barry E., 2019. "New monetary services (Divisia) indexes for the post-war U.S," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 3-17.
    4. Drake, Leigh & Fleissig, Adrian R., 2008. "A Note On The Policy Implications Of Using Divisia Consumption And Monetary Aggregates," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 132-149, February.
    5. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle, 2011. "How better monetary statistics could have signaled the financial crisis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(1), pages 6-23, March.
    6. Ryadh M. Alkhareif & William A. Barnett, 2012. "Divisia Monetary Aggregates for the GCC Countries," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: Recent Developments in Alternative Finance: Empirical Assessments and Economic Implications, pages 1-37, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    7. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet, 2011. "International Financial Aggregation and Index Number Theory: A Chronological Half-Century Empirical Overview," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Aggregation And Index Number Theory, chapter 1, pages 1-51, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Fleissig, Adrian R. & Whitney, Gerald A., 2008. "A nonparametric test of weak separability and consumer preferences," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 275-281, December.
    9. Ali Jadidzadeh & Apostolos Serletis, 2019. "The Demand for Assets and Optimal Monetary Aggregation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(4), pages 929-952, June.
    10. Jones, Barry E. & Stracca, Livio, 2006. "Are money and consumption additively separable in the euro area? A non-parametric approach," Working Paper Series 704, European Central Bank.
    11. William A. Barnett, 2000. "Which Road Leads to Stable Money Demand?," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 577-592, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    12. Barry E. Jones & Livio Stracca, 2008. "Does Money Matter In The Is Curve? The Case Of The Uk," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(s1), pages 58-84, September.
    13. Binner, Jane & Elger, Thomas & de Peretti, Philipe, 2002. "Is UK Risky Money Weakly Separable? A Stochastic Approach," Working Papers 2002:13, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    14. Fleissig, Adrian R. & Jones, Barry E., 2023. "U.K. household-sector money demand during Brexit and the pandemic," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    15. Serletis, Apostolos & Rangel-Ruiz, Ricardo, 2005. "Microeconometrics and measurement matters: Some results from monetary economics for Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 307-330, June.
    16. William Barnett, 2013. "Friedman and Divisia Monetary Measures," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201312, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2013.
    17. Cherchye, Laurens & Demuynck, Thomas & De Rock, Bram & Hjertstrand, Per, 2015. "Revealed preference tests for weak separability: An integer programming approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 129-141.
    18. Elger, C. Thomas & Jones, Barry E. & Edgerton, David L. & Binner, Jane M., 2008. "A Note On The Optimal Level Of Monetary Aggregation In The United Kingdom," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 117-131, February.
    19. Binner, Jane & Elger, Thomas, 2002. "The UK Personal Sector Demand for Risky Money," Working Papers 2002:9, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    20. Elger, Thomas & Jones, Barry & Edgerton, David & Binner, Jane, 2004. "The Optimal Level of Monetary Aggregation in the UK," Working Papers 2004:7, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 26 Jan 2005.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk; Capital asset pricing model; Liquidity; Divisia money;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:89:y:2018:i:c:p:127-138. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.