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The Exact Theoretical Rational Expectations Monetary Aggregate

In: Financial Aggregation And Index Number Theory

Author

Listed:
  • William A. Barnett

    (University of Kansas, USA)

  • Melvin J. Hinich
  • Piyu Yue

Abstract

AbstractIn aggregation theory, index numbers are judged relative to their ability to track the exact aggregator functions nested within the economy's structure. Within the monetary sector, Barnett, Liu, and Jensen (1997) compared two statistical index numbers: the Divisia monetary aggregate and the simple sum monetary aggregate. They produced those comparisons using simulated data. In this paper, we again compare those two statistical index numbers with the exact rational expectations monetary aggregate, but we use actual data. Since we are not using simulated data, we estimate the parameters of the Euler equations and thereby of the nested monetary aggregator function using generalized method of moments. We explore the tracking errors of the two index numbers relative to the estimated exact aggregate. We investigate the circumstances under which risk aversion increases tracking error. We also use polyspectral methods to test for the existence of remaining nonlinear structure in the residual tracking errors.

Suggested Citation

  • William A. Barnett & Melvin J. Hinich & Piyu Yue, 2011. "The Exact Theoretical Rational Expectations Monetary Aggregate," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Aggregation And Index Number Theory, chapter 2, pages 53-84 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789814293105_0002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hinich, Melvin J. & Patterson, Douglas M., 1985. "Identification of the coefficients in a non-linear : time series of the quadratic type," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 269-288.
    2. James M. Poterba & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1986. "Money in the Utility Function: An Empirical Implementation," Working papers 408, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    3. William A. Barnett & Douglas Fisher & Apostolos Serletis, 2006. "Consumer Theory and the Demand for Money," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Money And The Economy, chapter 1, pages 3-43 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Barnett, William A. & Ronald Gallant, A. & Hinich, Melvin J. & Jungeilges, Jochen A. & Kaplan, Daniel T. & Jensen, Mark J., 1995. "Robustness of nonlinearity and chaos tests to measurement error, inference method, and sample size," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 301-320, July.
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    6. K. Alec Chrystal & Ronald MacDonald, 1994. "Empirical evidence on the recent behavior and usefulness of simple-sum and weighted measures of the money stock," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 73-109.
    7. Barnett, William A. & Gallant, A. Ronald & Hinich, Melvin J. & Jungeilges, Jochen A. & Kaplan, Daniel T. & Jensen, Mark J., 1997. "A single-blind controlled competition among tests for nonlinearity and chaos," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 157-192.
    8. Belongia, Michael T & Chalfant, James A, 1989. "The Changing Empirical Definition of Money: Some Estimates from a Model of the Demand for Money Substitutes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 387-397, April.
    9. Feenstra, Robert C., 1986. "Functional equivalence between liquidity costs and the utility of money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 271-291, March.
    10. William Barnett, 2005. "Monetary Aggregation," Macroeconomics 0503017, EconWPA.
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    16. Barnett, William A & Kirova, Milka & Pasupathy, Meenakshi, 1995. "Estimating Policy-Invariant Deep Parameters in the Financial Sector When Risk and Growth Matter," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1402-1429, November.
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    19. William A. Barnett & Ge Zhou, 1994. "Financial firm's production and supply-side monetary aggregation under dynamic uncertainty," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 133-165.
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    24. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-1286, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Heather L. R. Tierney, 2011. "Measurement Error in Monetary Aggregates: A Markov Switching Factor Approach," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Aggregation And Index Number Theory, chapter 7, pages 207-249 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2004:i:13:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. William A. Barnett & Shu Wu, 2011. "On User Costs of Risky Monetary Assets," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Aggregation And Index Number Theory, chapter 3, pages 85-105 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Michael T. Belongia, 1992. "Selecting an intermediate target variable for monetary policy when the goal is price stability," Working Papers 1992-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. repec:wsi:gjexxx:v:01:y:2012:i:01:n:s225136121250005x is not listed on IDEAS
    6. William Barnett & Shu Wu, 2004. "Intertemporally non-separable monetary-asset risk adjustment and aggregation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(13), pages 1-9.
    7. William A Barnett & Unja Chae & John W Keating, 2012. "Forecast Design In Monetary Capital Stock Measurement," Global Journal of Economics (GJE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 1-53.
    8. Binner, Jane & Elger, Thomas, 2002. "The UK Personal Sector Demand for Risky Money," Working Papers 2002:9, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    9. Binner, Jane & Elger, Thomas & de Peretti, Philipe, 2002. "Is UK Risky Money Weakly Separable? A Stochastic Approach," Working Papers 2002:13, Lund University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Index Number Theory; Aggregation Theory; Money; Financial Assets; Monetary Aggregates;

    JEL classification:

    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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