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Selecting an intermediate target variable for monetary policy when the goal is price stability

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  • Michael T. Belongia

Abstract

Conventional investigations of the "best" intermediate target variable for monetary policy have used a single criterion: the best fit between the behavior of an aggregate and that of some goal variable such as nominal spending or the aggregate price level. Ignored in this type of study, however, is the ability of the central bank to control the behavior of the aggregate which has the best fit relative to the goal variable. This paper treats the issue of monetary control explicitly and selects an intermediate target variable on the basis of a joint criterion of monetary control and relationship with the aggregate price level. The results indicate that all of the traditional simple sum aggregates perform poorly relative to Divisia aggregates or the currency-equivalent (CE) measure recently proposed by Rotemberg, et al.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael T. Belongia, 1992. "Selecting an intermediate target variable for monetary policy when the goal is price stability," Working Papers 1992-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1992-008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Belongia, Michael T & Chalfant, James A, 1989. "The Changing Empirical Definition of Money: Some Estimates from a Model of the Demand for Money Substitutes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 387-397, April.
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    7. Ben S. Bernanke, 1990. "On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 51-68.
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    12. Hafer, R W & Jansen, Dennis W, 1991. "The Demand for Money in the United States: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 155-168, May.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. There is nothing “unconventional” about money base control
      by Lars Christensen in The Market Monetarist on 2013-11-30 15:06:27

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    Cited by:

    1. Tang, Maggie May-Jean & Puah, Chin-Hong & Awang Marikan, Dayang-Affizzah, 2013. "Empirical Evidence on the Long-Run Neutrality Hypothesis Using Divisia Money," MPRA Paper 50020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Thornton, Saranna Robinson, 2000. "How do broader monetary aggregates and divisia measures of money perform in McCallum's adaptive monetary rule?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 181-204.

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    Keywords

    Monetary policy ; Prices;

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