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Macroprudential stress test of the euro area banking system

Author

Listed:
  • Budnik, Katarzyna
  • Balatti, Mirco
  • Dimitrov, Ivan
  • Groß, Johannes
  • Hansen, Ib
  • Kleemann, Michael
  • Sanna, Francesco
  • Sarychev, Andrei
  • Siņenko, Nadežda
  • Volk, Matjaz
  • Covi, Giovanni
  • di Iasio, Giovanni
  • Cera, Katharina
  • Giuzio, Margherita
  • Mirza, Harun
  • Moccero, Diego
  • Nicoletti, Giulio
  • Pancaro, Cosimo
  • Palligkinis, Spyros

Abstract

This paper presents an approach to a macroprudential stress test for the euro area banking system, comprising the 91 largest euro area credit institutions across 19 countries. The approach involves modelling banks’ reactions to changing economic conditions. It also examines the effects of adverse scenarios on economies and the financial system as a whole by acknowledging a broad set of interactions and interdependencies between banks, other market participants, and the real economy. Our results highlight the importance of the starting level of bank capital, bank asset quality, and banks’ adjustments for the propagation of shocks to the financial sector and real economy. JEL Classification: E37, E58, G21, G28

Suggested Citation

  • Budnik, Katarzyna & Balatti, Mirco & Dimitrov, Ivan & Groß, Johannes & Hansen, Ib & Kleemann, Michael & Sanna, Francesco & Sarychev, Andrei & Siņenko, Nadežda & Volk, Matjaz & Covi, Giovanni & di Iasi, 2019. "Macroprudential stress test of the euro area banking system," Occasional Paper Series 226, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2019226
    Note: 1355359
    as

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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op226~5e126a8e37.en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Duchi, Fabio & Elbourne, Adam, 2016. "Credit supply shocks in the Netherlands," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 51-71.
    2. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2012. "Loan supply shocks during the financial crisis: Evidence for the Euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 569-592.
    3. Greetje Everaert & Natasha X Che & Nan Geng & Bertrand Gruss & Gregorio Impavido & Yinqiu Lu & Christian Saborowski & Jérôme Vandenbussche & Li Zeng, 2015. "Does Supply or Demand Drive the Credit Cycle? Evidence from Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 15/15, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Altavilla, Carlo & Pariès, Matthieu Darracq & Nicoletti, Giulio, 2019. "Loan supply, credit markets and the euro area financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    5. Duchi, Fabio & Elbourne, Adam, 2016. "Credit supply shocks in the Netherlands," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 51-71.
    6. Ellul, Andrew & Jotikasthira, Chotibhak & Lundblad, Christian T., 2011. "Regulatory pressure and fire sales in the corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 596-620, September.
    7. Barnett, Alina & Thomas, Ryland, 2013. "Has weak lending and activity in the United Kingdom been driven by credit supply shocks?," Bank of England working papers 482, Bank of England.
    8. Estrella, Arturo, 2004. "The cyclical behavior of optimal bank capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1469-1498, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bank for International Settlements, 2020. "Stress testing in Latin America: A comparison of approaches and methodologies," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 108, 12-2019.
    2. Mirza, Harun & Moccero, Diego & Palligkinis, Spyros & Pancaro, Cosimo, 2020. "Fire sales by euro area banks and funds: What is their asset price impact?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 430-444.
    3. Marcin Borsuk & Konrad Kostrzewa, 2020. "Miary ryzyka systemowego dla Polski. Jak ryzyko systemowe wpływa na akcję kredytową banków?," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 51(3), pages 211-238.
    4. Cassola, Nuno & Kok, Christoffer & Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2019. "The ECB after the crisis: existing synergies among monetary policy, macroprudential policies and banking supervision," Occasional Paper Series 237, European Central Bank.
    5. Budnik, Katarzyna & Balatti, Mirco & Dimitrov, Ivan & Groß, Johannes & Kleemann, Michael & Reichenbachas, Tomas & Sanna, Francesco & Sarychev, Andrei & Siņenko, Nadežda & Volk, Matjaz, 2020. "Banking euro area stress test model," Working Paper Series 2469, European Central Bank.
    6. Arnould, Guillaume & Pancaro, Cosimo & Żochowski, Dawid, 2020. "Bank funding costs and solvency," Bank of England working papers 853, Bank of England.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking sector deleveraging; macroprudential policy; macro stress test; real-financial feedback mechanism;

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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