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Macro-Prudential Stress Test Models: A Survey

Author

Listed:
  • David Aikman
  • Daniel Beale
  • Adam Brinley-Codd
  • Anne-Caroline Hüser
  • Giovanni Covi
  • Caterina Lepore

Abstract

In this paper, we survey the rapidly developing literature on macroprudential stress-testing models. The scope of the survey includes models of contagion between banks, models of contagion within the wider financial system including non-bank financial institutions such as investment funds, and models that emphasise the two-way interaction between the financial sector and the real economy. Our aim is two-fold: first, to provide a reference guide of the state-of-the-art for those developing such models; second, to distil insights from this endeavour for policy-makers using these models. In our view, the modelling frontier faces three main challenges: (a) our understanding of the potential for amplification in sectors of the non-bank financial system during periods of stress, (b) multi-sectoral models of the non-bank financial system to analyse the behaviour of the overall demand and supply of liquidity under stress and (c) stress testing models that incorporate comprehensive two-way interactions between the financial system and the real economy. Emerging lessons for policy-makers are that, for a given-sized shock hitting the system, its eventual impact will depend on (a) the size of financial institutions' capital and liquidity buffers, (b) the liquidation strategies financial institutions adopt when they need to raise cash, and (c) the topology of the financial network.

Suggested Citation

  • David Aikman & Daniel Beale & Adam Brinley-Codd & Anne-Caroline Hüser & Giovanni Covi & Caterina Lepore, 2023. "Macro-Prudential Stress Test Models: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 2023/173, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/173
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    Cited by:

    1. Yuki Konaka & Toshitaka Maruyama & Fumitaka Nakamura, 2025. "Exploratory Scenario Analysis Considering the Growing Presence of Domestic and Foreign Investment Funds," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 25-E-11, Bank of Japan.
    2. Rendón, Juan F. & Cortés, Lina M. & Perote, Javier, 2025. "Modeling the procyclical impact of monetary policy on bank leverage: A stochastic macroprudential approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Ipsen, Leonhard & Aminian, Armin & Schulz-Gebhard, Jan, 2023. "Stress-testing inflation exposure: Systemically significant prices and asymmetric shock propagation in the EU28," BERG Working Paper Series 188, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    4. Ipsen, Leonhard & Aminian, Armin & Schulz, Jan, 2025. "Stress-testing Inflation Exposure: Systemically significant prices and asymmetric shock propagation in the EU," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 713-724.

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    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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