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The Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey

Author

Listed:
  • Bell, Venetia

    () (Bank of England)

  • Pugh, Alice

    () (Bank of England)

Abstract

This paper contains the first detailed empirical examination of the information content of the Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (CCS). The CCS asks a wide selection of questions of UK lenders relating to all aspects of bank credit provision. We examine the association between the survey responses and comparable official quantitative rates and lending growth data, and the extent to which the survey responses can help us to predict changes in those variables one quarter ahead. We find that many of the survey responses – especially those for household lending – are significantly associated with movements in the quantitative data. Similarly to the findings of equivalent surveys in the United States and euro area, we find that a subset of banks’ survey expectations of credit conditions provide a statistically significant guide for predicting changes in credit spreads and lending growth one quarter ahead.

Suggested Citation

  • Bell, Venetia & Pugh, Alice, 2014. "The Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey," Bank of England working papers 515, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0515
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    File URL: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2014/the-boe-credit-conditions-survey.pdf?la=en&hash=AC00FD27EAA74D142E8F8391B061FD607435D9B2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
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    3. Button, Richard & Pezzini, Silvia & Rossiter, Neil, 2010. "Understanding the price of new lending to households," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 50(3), pages 172-182.
    4. John V. Duca, 1995. "Credit availability, bank consumer lending, and consumer durables," Working Papers 9514, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Bell, Venetia & Young, Garry, 2010. "Understanding the weakness of bank lending," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 50(4), pages 311-320.
    6. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    7. Hempell, Hannah Sabine & Kok, Christoffer, 2010. "The impact of supply constraints on bank lending in the euro area - crisis induced crunching?," Working Paper Series 1262, European Central Bank.
    8. Bassett, William F. & Chosak, Mary Beth & Driscoll, John C. & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2014. "Changes in bank lending standards and the macroeconomy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 23-40.
    9. Barnett, Alina & Thomas, Ryland, 2013. "Has weak lending and activity in the United Kingdom been driven by credit supply shocks?," Bank of England working papers 482, Bank of England.
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    11. Del Giovane, Paolo & Eramo, Ginette & Nobili, Andrea, 2011. "Disentangling demand and supply in credit developments: A survey-based analysis for Italy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2719-2732, October.
    12. Butt, Nick & Pugh, Alice, 2014. "Credit spreads: capturing credit conditions facing households and firms," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(2), pages 137-148.
    13. Blaes, Barno, 2011. "Bank-related loan supply factors during the crisis: An analysis based on the German bank lending survey," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,31, Deutsche Bundesbank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Olena Havrylchyk, 2016. "Incentivising Lending to Smes with the Funding for Lending Scheme: Some Evidence from Bank-Level Data in the United Kingdom," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-24, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    2. Alejandro Jara & Juan-Francisco Martínez & Daniel Oda, 2017. "Bank’s Lending Growth in Chile: The Role of the Senior Loan Officers Survey," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 802, Central Bank of Chile.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank lending survey; credit conditions survey; credit growth; credit spreads;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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