The predictive power of the Senior Loan Officer Survey: do lending officers know anything special?
The answer to this question is yes, but not that much about banks. Every quarter the Federal Reserve System surveys a panel of senior loan officers at major banks across the nation. The results of this survey have been found in previous studies to provide useful information in predicting gross domestic product. This paper extends that work, finding that sector-specific survey results are relevant for predicting real activity in those sectors but, strangely, that the informative power of the survey results only marginally extend to various measures of performance in the banking sector.
|Date of creation:||2006|
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"Survey evidence of tighter credit conditions: what does it mean?,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Mar, pages 29-34.
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- Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 1999.
"Does the Federal Reserve possess an exploitable informational advantage?,"
99-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
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- Cara S. Lown & Donald P. Morgan & Sonali Rohatgi, 2000. "Listening to loan officers: the impact of commercial credit standards on lending and output," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-16.
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