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The Credit Cycle And The Business Cycle In Canada And The U.S.: Two Solitudes

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  • P. Siklos, B. Lavender

    () (LCERPA)

Abstract

Recent events highlight the importance of understanding the relationship between credit availability and real economic activity. This paper estimates macroeconomic models for Canada to investigate the relationship between changes in non-price lending standards, business loans and output. We allow for the possibility that macroeconomic and financial market conditions in the U.S. affect those in Canada. The responses to financial shocks are dissimilar in both countries. Real time data are also found to have a significant impact on the results. The U.S. and Canada may indeed be likened to 'two solitudes' insofar as the impact of credit conditions is concerned. Differences in the quality of banking standards and supervision of financial institutions, as well differences in the effectiveness of monetary policies in the two countries may partially explain the results.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Siklos, B. Lavender, 2014. "The Credit Cycle And The Business Cycle In Canada And The U.S.: Two Solitudes," LCERPA Working Papers wm0065, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:wlu:lcerpa:wm0065
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
    2. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
    3. Umar Faruqui & Paul Gilbert & Wendy Kei, 2008. "The Bank of Canada's Senior Loan Officer Survey," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2008(Autumn), pages 57-64.
    4. Wouter J. Den Haan & Steven W. Sumner & Guy M. Yamashiro, 2009. "Bank loan portfolios and the Canadian monetary transmission mechanism," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 1150-1175, August.
    5. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
    6. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    7. Fuerst, Timothy S., 1994. "The availability doctrine," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 429-443, December.
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    9. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, January.
    10. Tamim Bayoumi & Ola Melander, 2008. "Credit Matters; Empirical Evidence on U.S. Macro-Financial Linkages," IMF Working Papers 08/169, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Vladimir Klyuev, 2008. "Real Implications of Financial Linkages Between Canada and the United States," IMF Working Papers 08/23, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Thomas J. Cunningham, 2006. "The predictive power of the Senior Loan Officer Survey: do lending officers know anything special?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pang, Ke & Siklos, Pierre L., 2016. "Macroeconomic consequences of the real-financial nexus: Imbalances and spillovers between China and the U.S," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 195-212.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    macro-financial linkages; credit standards; Loan Officer Survey;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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