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The Price Puzzle And Var Identification

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  • Estrella, Arturo

Abstract

In structural VARs, unexpected monetary tightening often leads to the price puzzle, a counterintuitive increase in inflation in the impulse response function. The identification of impulse responses requires at least a minimal set of structural assumptions, and models exhibiting the price puzzle typically use standard assumptions focusing mainly on relationships among contemporaneous disturbances. This note uses a well-established stylized fact, the long lags of monetary policy, to motivate a simple additional identifying assumption. The assumption eliminates a single term in one equation of the reduced form, and with it the price puzzle.

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  • Estrella, Arturo, 2015. "The Price Puzzle And Var Identification," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(8), pages 1880-1887, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:19:y:2015:i:08:p:1880-1887_00
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    6. Tarron Khemraj & Sherry Yu, 2023. "Inflation Dynamics and Quantitative Easing," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 613-638, October.
    7. Javier Sánchez García & Salvador Cruz Rambaud, 2022. "Machine Learning Regularization Methods in High-Dimensional Monetary and Financial VARs," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-15, March.
    8. Mansur, Alfan, 2019. "Sharia Banking Dynamics and the Macroeconomic Responses: Evidence from Indonesia," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 53(2), pages 139-152.
    9. Goyal, Ashima & Parab, Prashant, 2021. "What influences aggregate inflation expectations of households in India?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
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    12. James Bishop & Peter Tulip, 2017. "Anticipatory Monetary Policy and the 'Price Puzzle'," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2017-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    13. Taniya Ghosh & Sohini Sahu & Siddhartha Chattopadhyay, 2021. "Inflation expectations of households in India: Role of oil prices, economic policy uncertainty, and spillover of global financial uncertainty," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 230-251, April.
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