IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/ijfiec/v26y2021i4p6421-6443.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stock market transmission channel of monetary policy: Empirical evidence from Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Ilhami Gunduz

Abstract

Monetary policy is one of the instruments that policymakers use to provide both sustainable economic growth and price stability. In this study, I analyse the stock market transmission channel of the monetary policy of the Turkish economy not only at the aggregate but also at the sectoral level in a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework. I adopt alternative variables as a policy instrument. When the spread is used as a policy instrument, I find that contractionary monetary policy has a significant negative effect on both output and the price level, and it appreciates the Turkish Lira. Besides, the tight monetary policy reduces both aggregate and sectoral market returns. Hence, I observe that there are effective interest rate, exchange rate, and asset price channels in the Turkish economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilhami Gunduz, 2021. "Stock market transmission channel of monetary policy: Empirical evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 6421-6443, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:26:y:2021:i:4:p:6421-6443
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2129
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2129
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/ijfe.2129?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
    2. Estrella, Arturo, 2015. "The Price Puzzle And Var Identification," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(8), pages 1880-1887, December.
    3. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    4. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February.
    5. Thorbecke, Willem, 1997. "On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 635-654, June.
    6. Koray, Faik & McMillin, W. Douglas, 1999. "Monetary shocks, the exchange rate, and the trade balance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 925-940, December.
    7. Afrin, Sadia, 2017. "Monetary policy transmission in Bangladesh: Exploring the lending channel," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 60-80.
    8. Aleem, Abdul, 2010. "Transmission mechanism of monetary policy in India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 186-197, April.
    9. M. Hakan Berument & Nildag Basak Ceylan & Burak Dogan, 2014. "An interest-rate-spread-based measure of Turkish monetary policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(15), pages 1804-1813, May.
    10. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    11. Disyatat, Piti & Vongsinsirikul, Pinnarat, 2003. "Monetary policy and the transmission mechanism in Thailand," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 389-418, June.
    12. By James Morsink & Tamim Bayoumi, 2001. "A Peek Inside the Black Box: The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Japan," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-2.
    13. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
    14. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "The Channels of Monetary Transmission: Lessons for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871, September.
    16. Golinelli, Roberto & Rovelli, Riccardo, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission, interest rate rules and inflation targeting in three transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 183-201, January.
    17. Patelis, Alex D, 1997. "Stock Return Predictability and the Role of Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1951-1972, December.
    18. Berument, Hakan, 2007. "Measuring monetary policy for a small open economy: Turkey," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 411-430, June.
    19. K. Peren Arin & Abdullah Mamun & Nanda Purushothman, 2009. "The effects of tax policy on financial markets: G3 evidence," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 33-46, January.
    20. Darrat, Ali F, 1988. "On Fiscal Policy and the Stock Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 353-363, August.
    21. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn & Techarongrojwong, Yaowaluk, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy decisions on stock returns: Evidence from Thailand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 487-507.
    22. Simon H. Kwan, 2000. "Three questions about \\"new economy\\" stocks," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may12.
    23. Çatık, A. Nazif & Martin, Christopher, 2012. "Macroeconomic transitions and the transmission mechanism: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1440-1449.
    24. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521839198, September.
    25. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Some Evidence from the Flow of Funds," NBER Working Papers 4699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Mengesha, Lula G. & Holmes, Mark J., 2013. "Monetary policy and its transmission mechanisms in Eritrea," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 766-780.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. H. Kent Baker & Satish Kumar & Kirti Goyal & Prashant Gupta, 2023. "International journal of finance and economics: A bibliometric overview," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 9-46, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2016. "Monetary policies and the macroeconomic performance of Vietnam," OSF Preprints akzy4, Center for Open Science.
    2. Li, Huan & Ni, Jinlan & Xu, Yueli & Zhan, Minghua, 2021. "Monetary policy and its transmission channels: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    3. Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Firm Size and Equity Returns in An Emerging Market: Panel Evidence of Malaysia," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 11(2), pages 29-55.
    4. SHARMA Chandan & SETIA Rajat, 2017. "Effects Of Monetary Shocks On Exchange Rate: Empirical Evidence From India," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 12(2), pages 206-219, August.
    5. Pham The Anh, 2007. "Nominal Rigidities and The Real Effects of Monetary Policy in a Structural VAR Model," Working Papers 06, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam.
    6. Berument, Hakan, 2007. "Measuring monetary policy for a small open economy: Turkey," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 411-430, June.
    7. Lan Nguyen, Thi Mai & Papyrakis, Elissaios & van Bergeijk, Peter A.G., 2021. "Publication bias in the price effects of monetary policy: A meta-regression analysis for emerging and developing economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 567-583.
    8. Llaudes, Ricardo, 2007. "Monetary policy shocks in a two-sector open economy: an empirical study," Working Paper Series 799, European Central Bank.
    9. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Duffy, David & Filis, George, 2013. "Stock market response to monetary and fiscal policy shocks: Multi-country evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 754-769.
    10. Fatemeh Razmi & Azali Mohamed & Lee Chin & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2017. "How Does Monetary Policy Affect Economic Vulnerability to Oil Price Shock as against US Economy Shock?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 544-550.
    11. Samahita Phul, 2024. "Efficacy of Monetary Policy Transmission During the Flexible Inflation Targeting Regime in India," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 13(1), pages 70-99, June.
    12. Li, Yun Daisy & Iscan, Talan B. & Xu, Kuan, 2010. "The impact of monetary policy shocks on stock prices: Evidence from Canada and the United States," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 876-896, September.
    13. Thi Bich Ngoc Tran & Hoang Cam Huong Pham, 2020. "The Spillover Effects of the US Unconventional Monetary Policy: New Evidence from Asian Developing Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-26, July.
    14. Abdul Karim, Zulkefly & Zaidi, Mohd Azlan Shah & Karim, Bakri, 2011. "Does Firm-Level Equity Return Respond to Domestic and International Monetary Policy Shocks? A Panel Data Study of Malaysia," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 45, pages 21-31.
    15. Guizani, Brahim, 2015. "Effectiveness of Monetary Policy In Economies in Democratic Transition: Evidence from Tunisia," MPRA Paper 63205, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Mala Raghavan & Mardi Dungey, 2015. "Should ASEAN-5 monetary policy-makers act pre-emptively against stock market bubbles?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(11), pages 1086-1105, March.
    17. Brüggemann, Ralf & Jentsch, Carsten & Trenkler, Carsten, 2016. "Inference in VARs with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 69-85.
    18. Boniface Yemba & Yi Duan & Nabaneeta Biswas, 2023. "Government spending news and stock price index," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(4), pages 1816-1841.
    19. Stylianos X. Koufadakis, 2015. "Asymmetries on Closed End Country Funds Premium and Monetary Policy Announcements: An Approach Trough the Perspective of Foreign Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 29-65, july-Dece.
    20. M. Hakan Berument & Nukhet Dogan & Aysit Tansel, 2009. "Macroeconomic Policy and Unemployment by Economic Activity: Evidence from Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 21-34, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:26:y:2021:i:4:p:6421-6443. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.