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The Impact of Fiscal Policy on the U.S. Stock Market Return

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  • Ilhami Gunduz

    (Department of Economics, Fordham University, Bronx, NY, USA)

Abstract

In this study, I analyze the impact of the aggregate, income, corporate and social security tax revenues on both the U.S. output and the stock market return in a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework between 1960:Q1 and 2015:Q4. Unlike some of the other studies, I use aggregate and disaggregated tax revenue variables to examine the impact of scal policy. Results show that an increase in aggregate tax revenue reduces output and market return. In addition, an increase in income, corporate, and social security tax revenues reduces output and the market return signi cantly at varying degrees.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilhami Gunduz, 2025. "The Impact of Fiscal Policy on the U.S. Stock Market Return," Journal of Economic Analysis, Anser Press, vol. 4(2), pages 218-236, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bba:j00001:v:4:y:2025:i:2:p:218-236:d:424
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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