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Regionalne zróżnicowanie oddziaływania wydatków rządowych na zatrudnienie – wnioski z analizy SVAR

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  • Piotr Krajewski

    (Uniwersytet Łódzki, Instytut Ekonomii, Katedra Makroekonomii)

Abstract

Celem prezentowanej analizy empirycznej było oszacowanie wojewódzkich mnożników wydatków rządowych w Polsce na podstawie modelu SVAR. W badaniu zastosowano metodykę Blancharda i Perottiego, która dzięki wykorzystaniu danych kwartalnych i oszacowaniu cyklicznych komponentów wpływów podatkowych umożliwia identyfikację szoków związanych z wydatkami rządowymi. Odmiennie jednak niż u Blancharda i Perottiego, którzy analizowali oddziaływanie polityki fiskalnej na PKB, w pracy zbadano wpływ wydatków rządowych na poziom zatrudnienia na szczeblu regionalnym. Z przeprowadzonych analiz wynika, że wojewódzkie mnożniki wydatków rządowych cechują się dużą heterogenicznością. Otrzymano ponadto wyniki świadczące o tym, że oddziaływanie na regionalne rynki pracy szoku wydatków rządowych ma z reguły charakter przejściowy. Wyjątek stanowi województwo mazowieckie, w którym wpływ wydatków rządowych na zatrudnienie cechuje się dużą trwałością.

Suggested Citation

  • Piotr Krajewski, 2017. "Regionalne zróżnicowanie oddziaływania wydatków rządowych na zatrudnienie – wnioski z analizy SVAR," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 48(1), pages 73-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:48:y:2017:i:1:p:73-96
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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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