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The effects of tax policy on financial markets: G3 evidence


  • Arin, K. Peren
  • Mamun, Abdullah
  • Purushothman, Nanda


We investigate the effects of various tax policy innovations on stock market returns. By using a vector autoregressive model that controls for the mutual causality between fiscal policy and financial market performance, we test whether financial markets serve as a transmission mechanism for tax policy innovations. Our findings indicate that indirect taxes have a larger effect on market returns than do labor taxes. Further, corporate tax innovations do not have any statistically significant effect on stock returns. We consider that this finding is a result of a firm's ability to switch between equity financing and bond financing.

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  • Arin, K. Peren & Mamun, Abdullah & Purushothman, Nanda, 2009. "The effects of tax policy on financial markets: G3 evidence," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 33-46, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:18:y:2009:i:1:p:33-46

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2012. "How does fiscal policy react to wealth composition and asset prices?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 874-890.
    2. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2012. "Fiscal policy and asset price volatility," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 123-156, February.
    3. Agnello, Luca & Dufrénot, Gilles & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "Nonlinear effects of asset prices on fiscal policy: Evidence from the UK, Italy and Spain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 358-362.
    4. Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2011. "Asset price volatility and government revenue," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2532-2543.
    5. Afonso, António & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2011. "What are the effects of fiscal policy on asset markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1871-1890, July.
    6. Naeem Akram, 2016. "Do Financial Sector Activities Affect Tax Revenue in Pakistan?," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 21(2), pages 153-169, July-Dec.
    7. Luca Agnello & Gilles Dufrénot & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Adjusting the U.S. Fiscal Policy for Asset Prices: Evidence from a TVP-MS Framework," NIPE Working Papers 20/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    8. Muhammad Irfan Javaid Attari & Roshaiza Taha & Muhammad Imran Farooq, 2014. "Tax Revenue, Stock Market and Economic Growth of Pakistan," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 5(5), pages 136-148, October.
    9. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2013. "Fiscal Policy And Asset Prices," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 154-177, April.
    10. Norman Gemmell & Richard Kneller & Ismael Sanz, 2011. "The Timing and Persistence of Fiscal Policy Impacts on Growth: Evidence from OECD Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(550), pages 33-58, February.
    11. Taha, Roshaiza & Colombage, Sisira R.N. & Maslyuk, Svetlana & Nanthakumar, Loganathan, 2013. "Does financial system activity affect tax revenue in Malaysia? Bounds testing and causality approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 147-157.


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