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Macroeconomic transitions and the transmission mechanism: Evidence from Turkey

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  • Çatık, A. Nazif
  • Martin, Christopher

Abstract

This paper investigates changes to the macroeconomic transmission mechanism in Turkey following a major reform of monetary policy in the early 2000s. We use a Threshold VAR (TVAR) framework to test for and then estimate a model with endogenous transitions between regimes. We detect two regimes, with a clear transition between them in 2003–4. The pre-reform regime is characterized by high inflation, passive monetary policy and persistent responses to shocks. The post-reform regime is characterized by low inflation, active and credible monetary policy and markedly less persistent responses to shocks. Using a model that contains sufficient variables to capture diverse transmission mechanisms, working through the real exchange rate, domestic credit and monetary policy, we find evidence of sharp changes in transmission mechanisms. Post-reform, the response of Turkey to macroeconomic shocks has changed to be similar to those in other modern, market-orientated economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Çatık, A. Nazif & Martin, Christopher, 2012. "Macroeconomic transitions and the transmission mechanism: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1440-1449.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:4:p:1440-1449
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tomas Konecny & Oxana Babecka-Kucharcukova, 2016. "Credit Spreads and the Links between the Financial and Real Sectors in a Small Open Economy: The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(4), pages 302-321, August.
    2. Shen, Pei-Long & Li, Wen & Wang, Xiao-Ting & Su, Chi-Wei, 2015. "Contagion effect of the European financial crisis on China's stock markets: Interdependence and pure contagion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 193-199.
    3. K. Azim Ozdemir, 2015. "Interest Rate Surprises and Transmission Mechanism in Turkey: Evidence from Impulse Response Analysis," Working Papers 1504, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Abdurrahman Nazif Catik & Mohamad Husam Helmi & Faek Menla Ali & Mohammad Tajik, 2016. "The Bank Lending Channel in a Dual Banking System: Evidence from Malaysia," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1557, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Transmission mechanism; Regime changes; Turkey;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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