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International transmission of monetary and global commodity price shocks to Turkey

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  • Civcir, İrfan
  • Ertac Varoglu, Dizem

Abstract

This paper explores the international transmission mechanisms on the macroeconomic and monetary variables of Turkey and hence proposes some particular policy implications. The effects of monetary shocks stemming from the U.S. and the European area, and global commodity price shocks are investigated using a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) approach. For the analysis, we use monthly data from 2002M01 to 2016M06 and we analyze the transmission mechanism in Turkey using two different SVAR model specifications. Our results reveal that shocks coming from the U.S. and the Euro area lead to significantly different responses on industrial production, consumer prices, real effective exchange rates, and the domestic interest rate, with the Euro area monetary expansion having more explicit and positive effects on the real economy. The global commodity price shocks affect the Turkish macroeconomic variables in a similar but much less powerful fashion than that of the U.S. monetary expansion. As our empirical findings point out that the Turkish economy is vulnerable to global monetary and commodity price shocks. This vulnerability necessitates moving to a sustainable growth path consistent with a sustainable current account balance and a sustainable private and government debt coupled with a strengthened macroprudential regime and comprehensive structural reforms.

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  • Civcir, İrfan & Ertac Varoglu, Dizem, 2019. "International transmission of monetary and global commodity price shocks to Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 647-665.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:41:y:2019:i:4:p:647-665
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2019.02.004
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural VAR; International transmission mechanisms; Monetary shocks; Turkey; U.S. and the EU;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

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