IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Commodity Prices and BRIC and G3 Liquidity: A SFAVEC Approach

Author Info

  • Ratti, Ronald A.
  • Vespignani, Joaquin L.

Abstract

This paper investigates the influence of liquidity in the major developed and major developing ‎economies on commodity prices. Unanticipated increases in the BRIC countries’ liquidity is ‎associated with significant and persistent increases in commodity prices that are much larger ‎than the effect of unanticipated increases in G3 liquidity, and the difference increases over ‎time. Over 1999-2012 BRIC liquidity is strongly linked with global energy prices and global ‎real activity whereas G3 liquidity is not. The impact of BRIC liquidity on mineral and metal ‎prices is twice as large as that of G3 liquidity. BRIC liquidity is significantly connected with ‎global tightening while G3 liquidity is not. Granger casualty goes from liquidity to ‎commodity prices. BRIC and G3 liquidity and commodity prices are cointegrated. BRIC and ‎G3 liquidity and global output and global prices are cointegrated. We constructed a structural ‎factor-augmented error correction (SFAVEC) model.‎

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/49324/1/MPRA_paper_49324.pdf
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 49324.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 24 Aug 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:49324
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany

Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2459
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-992459
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

More information through EDIRC

Keywords: Commodity Prices; BRIC countries; G3; Global liquidity; SFAVEC;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
  • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
  • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
  • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
  • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Gordon, David B & Leeper, Eric M, 1994. "The Dynamic Impacts of Monetary Policy: An Exercise in Tentative Identification," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1228-47, December.
  2. Ansgar Belke & Ingo Bordon & Ulrich Volz, 2012. "Effects of Global Liquidity on Commodity and Food Prices," ROME Working Papers 201201, ROME Network.
  3. Vincenzo Quadrini & Fabrizio Perri, 2010. "International recessions," 2010 Meeting Papers 222, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun Vahey, 2008. "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/13, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  5. Vladimir Yankov & Egon Zakrajsek & Simon Gilchrist, 2009. "Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets," 2009 Meeting Papers 514, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1985. "Commodity Prices, Money Surprises and Fed Credibility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 425-38, November.
  7. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  8. Lutz Kilian & Bruce Hicks, 2013. "Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003–2008?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 385-394, 08.
  9. Daniel L. Thornton, 2008. "Monetary policy: why money matters and interest rates don't," Working Papers 2008-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  10. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Working Paper Series 47_09, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  11. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  12. Sophie Brana & Marie-Louise Djigbenou & Stéphanie Prat, 2012. "Global excess liquidity and asset prices in emerging countries: a pvar approach," Larefi Working Papers 1203, Larefi, Université Bordeaux 4.
  13. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2010. "The dynamic effects of monetary policy: A structural factor model approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 203-216, March.
  14. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans‐Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2010. "Asset Price Misalignments and the Role of Money and Credit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 377-407, Winter.
  15. Chetan Dave & Scott J. Dressler & Lei Zhang, 2013. "The Bank Lending Channel: A FAVAR Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(8), pages 1705-1720, December.
  16. Beyer, A. & Doornik, J.A. & Hendry, D.F., 2000. "Constructing Historical Euro-Zone Data," Economics Working Papers eco2000/10, European University Institute.
  17. James G. MacKinnon & Alfred A. Haug & Leo Michelis, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Working Papers 1996_07, York University, Department of Economics.
  18. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 137-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Hyun J. Jin & Darren L. Frechette, 2004. "Fractional Integration in Agricultural Futures Price Volatilities," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(2), pages 432-443.
  20. Luis Catão; & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "The Credit Channel and Monetary Transmission in Brazil and Chile: A Structural VAR Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 579, Central Bank of Chile.
  21. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Björn-Jakob Treutler & Scott M. Weiner & April, . "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-13, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  22. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2013. "Primary commodity prices: Co-movements, common factors and fundamentals," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 16-26.
  23. D'Agostino, A & Surico, P, 2007. "Does global liquidity help to forecast US inflation?," MPRA Paper 6283, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  24. Hyeyoen Kim & Mark P. Taylor, 2012. "Large Datasets, Factor‐augmented and Factor‐only Vector Autoregressive Models, and the Economic Consequences of Mrs Thatcher," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 79(314), pages 378-410, 04.
  25. Barsky, Robert & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," CEPR Discussion Papers 4496, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  26. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2001. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Working Papers 01-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  27. Matthew T. Holt & Andrew M. McKenzie, 2003. "Quasi-rational and ex ante price expectations in commodity supply models: an empirical analysis of the US broiler market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 407-426.
  28. Kim, Soyoung, 2001. "International transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Evidence from VAR's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 339-372, October.
  29. Christopher A. Sims, 2002. "The Role of Models and Probabilities in the Monetary Policy Process," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 1-62.
  30. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
  31. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
  32. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2012. "What drives oil prices? Emerging versus developed economies," Working Papers 0007, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  33. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  34. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry-McKibbin & Verity Linehan, 2014. "Chinese resource demand and the natural resource supplier," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 167-178, January.
  35. Browne, Frank & Cronin, David, 2006. "Commodity Prices, Money and Inflation," Research Technical Papers 16/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
  36. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1998. "Does monetary policy generate recessions?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  37. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Marvin Goodfriend & Eswar Prasad, 2007. "A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 53(1), pages 2-41, March.
  39. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  40. Humphreys, David, 2010. "The great metals boom: A retrospective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-13, March.
  41. Ratti, Ronald A & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2013. "Why crude oil prices are high when global activity is weak?," Working Papers 2013-01, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 20 Mar 2013.
  42. Dées, Stéphane & di Mauro, Filippo & Pesaran, Hashem & Smith, Vanessa, 2005. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 0568, European Central Bank.
  43. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  44. Ivan Roberts & Anthony Rush, 2010. "Sources of Chinese Demand for Resource Commodities," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2010-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  45. Fernald, John G. & Spiegel, Mark M. & Swanson, Eric T., 2014. "Monetary policy effectiveness in China: evidence from a FAVAR model," Working Paper Series 2014-7, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  46. Sousa, Joao Miguel & Zaghini, Andrea, 2007. "Global monetary policy shocks in the G5: A SVAR approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 403-419, December.
  47. Hamilton, James D & Herrera, Ana Maria, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 265-86, April.
  48. Grier, Kevin B. & Smallwood, Aaron D., 2013. "Exchange rate shocks and trade: A multivariate GARCH-M approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 282-305.
  49. Yin-Wong Cheung & Kon S. Lai & Michael Bergman, 2003. "Dissecting the PPP Puzzle: The Unconventional Roles of Nominal Exchange Rate and Price Adjustment," CESifo Working Paper Series 924, CESifo Group Munich.
  50. Rasmus Ruffer & Livio Stracca, 2007. "What is global excess liquidity, and does it matter?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 120, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  51. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2013. "Why are crude oil prices high when global activity is weak?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 133-136.
  52. Swanson, Norman R., 1998. "Money and output viewed through a rolling window," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 455-474, May.
  53. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6548, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  54. Fawley, Brett W. & Neely, Christopher J., 2014. "The evolution of Federal Reserve policy and the impact of monetary policy surprises on asset prices," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 96(1), pages 73-109.
  55. Boivin, Jean & Ng, Serena, 2006. "Are more data always better for factor analysis?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 169-194, May.
  56. Lombardi, Marco J. & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2010. "Global commodity cycles and linkages a FAVAR approach," Working Paper Series 1170, European Central Bank.
  57. Anzuini, Alessio & Lombardi, Marco J. & Pagano, Patrizio, 2010. "The impact of monetary policy shocks on commodity prices," Working Paper Series 1232, European Central Bank.
  58. Favero, Carlo A., 2013. "Modelling and forecasting government bond spreads in the euro area: A GVAR model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 343-356.
  59. Reginald Darius, 2010. "Can Global Liquidity Forecast Asset Prices?," IMF Working Papers 10/196, International Monetary Fund.
  60. Ansgar Belke & Walter Orth & Ralph Setzer, 2009. "Liquidity and the Dynamic Pattern of Asset Price Adjustment: A Global View," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 933, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  61. Francesco Belviso & Fabio Milani, 2005. "Structural Factor-Augmented VAR (SFAVAR) and the Effects of Monetary Policy," Macroeconomics 0503023, EconWPA.
  62. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2006. "Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199296859, December.
  63. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Does global liquidity drive commodity prices?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 224-234.
  64. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
  65. Lance J. Bachmeier & Norman R. Swanson, 2005. "Predicting Inflation: Does The Quantity Theory Help?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(3), pages 570-585, July.
  66. Radetzki, Marian, 2006. "The anatomy of three commodity booms," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 56-64, March.
  67. Ono, Shigeki, 2013. "The effects of foreign exchange and monetary policies in Russia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 522-541.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

as in new window


Cited by:

  1. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "US monetary policy and sectoral commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 61-85.
  2. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "The implications of liquidity expansion in China for the US dollar," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 264, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  3. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "China’s Monetary Policy and Commodity Prices," Working Papers 2014-298, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  4. Brana, Sophie & Prat, Stéphanie, 2016. "The effects of global excess liquidity on emerging stock market returns: Evidence from a panel threshold model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 26-34.
  5. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "US Monetary Policy and Commodity Sector Prices," Working Papers 2014-438, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  6. Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2016. "Bayesian GVAR with k-endogenous dominants & input–output weights: Financial and trade channels in crisis transmission for BRICs," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-26.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Access and download statistics

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:49324. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.