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A new monthly indicator of global real economic activity

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  • Francesco Ravazzolo
  • Joaquin L. Vespignani

Abstract

In modelling macroeconomic time series, often a monthly indicator of global real economic activity is used. We propose a new indicator, named World steel production, and compare it to other existing indicators, precisely the Kilian?s index of global real economic activity and the index of OECD World industrial production. We develop an econometric approach based on desirable econometric properties in relation to the quarterly measure of World or global gross domestic product to evaluate and to choose across different alternatives. The method is designed to evaluate short-term, long-term and predictability properties of the indicators. World steel production is proven to be the best monthly indicator of global economic activity in terms of our econometric properties. Kilian?s index of global real economic activity also accurately predicts World GDP growth rates. When extending the analysis to an out-of-sample exercise, both Kilian?s index of global real economic activity and the World steel production produce accurate forecasts for World GDP, confirming evidence provided by the econometric properties. Specifically, a forecast combination of the three indices produces statistically significant gains up to 40% at nowcast and more than 10% at longer horizons relative to an autoregressive benchmark.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Ravazzolo & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2015. "A new monthly indicator of global real economic activity," Globalization Institute Working Papers 244, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:244
    DOI: 10.24149/gwp244
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    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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