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New kid on the block? China vs the US in world oil markets

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  • Jamie Cross
  • Bao H. Nguyen
  • Bo Zhang

Abstract

China has recently overtaken the US to become the world largest importer of crude oil. In light of this fact, we formally compare contributions of demand shocks from China, the US and the rest of the world. We find that China’s influence on the real price of oil has increased over the past two decades and surpassed that of the US. Despite this result, oil prices are more sensitive to demand shocks from the US than China. Finally, we document that demand shocks from China alone were too small to have caused the mid 2003-2008 price surge. Instead, oil specific demand shocks are found to be the major determinant of the real oil price during this period.

Suggested Citation

  • Jamie Cross & Bao H. Nguyen & Bo Zhang, 2019. "New kid on the block? China vs the US in world oil markets," CAMA Working Papers 2019-33, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2019-33
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2019-05/33_2019_cross_nguyen_zhang.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ravazzolo, Francesco & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2015. "A new monthly indicator of global real economic activity," Working Papers 2015-07, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; US; Oil markets;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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