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Miracles and Debacles: In Defence of Trade Openness

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  • Arvind Panagariya

Abstract

The central theme of this paper is that sustained rapid growth cannot be achieved without rapid growth in trade. A review of the experience during the past four decades offers virtually no examples of countries achieving sustained rapid growth - called miracles in this paper - without simultaneously experiencing sustained rapid growth in trade in the presence of low or high but declining barriers to trade. Simultaneously, the claim that opening to trade leads to sustained income losses is unfounded. A review of the experience of the countries that have faced stagnation or declining per-capita incomes on a long-term basis - called debacles in this paper - reveals no connection to a sustained surge in imports. Copyright 2004 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Arvind Panagariya, 2004. "Miracles and Debacles: In Defence of Trade Openness," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(8), pages 1149-1171, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:27:y:2004:i:8:p:1149-1171
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2008. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 22(2), pages 187-231, June.
    2. Jagdish N. Bhagwati & T. N. Srinivasan, 1975. "Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: India," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bhag75-1.
    3. Pritchett, Lant, 1996. "Measuring outward orientation in LDCs: Can it be done?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 307-335, May.
    4. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
    5. Francisco Rodriguez & Dani Rodrik, 1999. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to Cross-National Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7081, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. repec:umd:umdeco:rodriguez9901 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Westphal, Larry E, 1990. "Industrial Policy in an Export-Propelled Economy: Lessons from South Korea's Experience," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 41-59, Summer.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yongzheng Yang & Sanjeev Gupta, 2005. "Regional Trade Arrangements in Africa; Past Performance and the Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 05/36, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Kym Anderson, 2005. "On the Virtues of Multilateral Trade Negotiations," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(255), pages 414-438, December.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2008. "Crises in Emerging Markets Economies: A Global Perspective," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.), Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 3, pages 085-115 Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Pankaj Vashisht, 2015. "Creating Manufacturing Jobs in India: Has Openness to Trade Really Helped?," Working Papers id:7126, eSocialSciences.
    5. Talukder, Dayal & Chile, Love, 2014. "Characteristics of Rice Cultivation and Rural Rice Market in Bangladesh: Evidence from a Survey," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 15(2), June.
    6. Ravazzolo, Francesco & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "A new monthly indicator of global real economic activity," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 244, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    7. Monojit Chatterji & Sushil Mohan & Sayantan Ghosh Dastidar, 2014. "Relationship Between Trade Openness And Economic Growth Of India: A Time Series Analysis," Journal of Academic Research in Economics, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Accounting and Financial Management Constanta, vol. 6(1 (March)), pages 45-69.
    8. Vashisht, Pankaj, 2016. "Creating manufacturing jobs in India: Has openness to trade really helped?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 53-64.
    9. Panagariya, Arvind, 2009. "Miracles and debacles revisited," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 556-572, July.
    10. Anderson, Kym, 2004. "The challenge of reducing subsidies and trade barriers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3415, The World Bank.
    11. John Romalis, 2007. "Market Access, Openness and Growth," NBER Working Papers 13048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Khaing, Khaing Sape Saw, 2007. "Globalization and Change of Investment Environment in ASEAN," MPRA Paper 42003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Mishkin, Frederic S., 2009. "Globalization and financial development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 164-169, July.
    14. repec:bla:worlde:v:40:y:2017:i:6:p:1247-1263 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Purba Mukerji & Arvind Panagariya, 2011. "Cost of Protection: A Second Look at the Romer Variety Effect," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 463-477, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business

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