IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/96641.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Should the Caribbean Look to the East? An Assessment of Caribbean Export Potential

Author

Listed:
  • Lorde, Troy
  • Alleyne, Antonio
  • Hosein, Roger
  • Yifei, Mu

Abstract

This study assesses the export potential of East Asia for the Caribbean within the framework of a structural gravity model. Export potential of 30% is estimated to be available to the Caribbean within East Asia. Individual markets with the greatest export potential are Singapore, China, and Japan. Various simulations of a free trade agreement between the two regions suggest the existence of even larger potential. The challenge for the Caribbean is that without significant structural changes, the region will be unable to exploit East Asia’s potential. Greater effort at the industry and policy levels will be critical for export expansion.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorde, Troy & Alleyne, Antonio & Hosein, Roger & Yifei, Mu, 2019. "Should the Caribbean Look to the East? An Assessment of Caribbean Export Potential," MPRA Paper 96641, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:96641
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/96641/1/MPRA_paper_96641.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Chaney, 2014. "The Network Structure of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(11), pages 3600-3634, November.
    2. Freund, Caroline L. & Weinhold, Diana, 2004. "The effect of the Internet on international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 171-189, January.
    3. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    4. Arvind Panagariya, 2004. "Miracles and Debacles: In Defence of Trade Openness," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(8), pages 1149-1171, August.
    5. Drysdale, Peter & Garnaut, Ross, 1982. "Trade Intensities and the Analysis of Bilateral Trade Flows in a Many-Country World : A Survey," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 22(2), pages 62-84, February.
    6. repec:ags:stataj:163398 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. shepherd, Ben, 2010. "Geographical Diversification of Developing Country Exports," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 1217-1228, September.
    8. Guimarães, Paulo & Portugal, Pedro, 2010. "A simple feasible procedure to fit models with high-dimensional fixed effects," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 10(4), pages 1-22.
    9. Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2011. "Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 220-222, August.
    10. Pamela Coke Hamilton & Yvonne Tsikata & Emmanuel Pinto Moreira, 2009. "Accelerating Trade and Integration in the Caribbean : Policy Options for Sustained Growth, Job Creation, and Poverty Reduction," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2652, January.
    11. Yongzheng Yang & Sanjeev Gupta, 2007. "Regional Trade Arrangements in Africa: Past Performance and the Way Forward," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 19(3), pages 399-431.
    12. Sanjay Kathuria & Mustapha Rouis & Michael Corlett & James Hanson & Rina H. Oberai & Kevin Tomlinson & Elizabeth Ruppert Bulmer & Andreas Blom & Abhas Jha & Camille Nuamah & Logan Brenzel, 2005. "A Time to Choose : Caribbean Development in the 21st Century," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10330, The World Bank.
    13. repec:bla:obuest:v:81:y:2019:i:3:p:487-510 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Peter Egger & Douglas Nelson, 2011. "How Bad Is Antidumping? Evidence from Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1374-1390, November.
    15. Michaely, Michael, 1998. "Partners to a preferential trade agreement: Implications of varying size," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 73-85, October.
    16. Schiff, Maurice, 2001. "Will the Real “Natural Trading Partner” Please Stand Up?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 16, pages 245-261.
    17. Pravin Krishna, 2003. "Are Regional Trading Partners "Natural"?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(1), pages 202-231, February.
    18. Sunday Osaretin Iyare & Troy Lorde & Brian Francis, 2005. "Financial development and economic growth in developing economies: empirical evidence from the Caribbean," Ekonomia, Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus, vol. 8(2), pages 168-184, Winter.
    19. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
    20. repec:sae:globus:v:19:y:2018:i:5:p:1129-1151 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    export potential; trade complementarity; natural trading partner; non-traditional markets; structural gravity; free trade agreement; Caribbean; East Asia;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:96641. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.