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Will the Real “Natural Trading Partner” Please Stand Up?

Author

Listed:
  • Maurice Schiff

    (World Bank)

Abstract

Adherents to the “natural trading partner” hypothesis argue that forming a PTA is more likely to raise welfare if member countries already trade disproportionately with each other. Opponents of the hypothesis claim that the opposite is true: welfare is likely to be higher if member countries trade less with each other. This paper shows that neither analysis is correct and that the “natural trading partner” hypothesis can be rescued if it is redefined in terms of complementarity or substitutability rather than in terms of volume of trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Maurice Schiff, 2001. "Will the Real “Natural Trading Partner” Please Stand Up?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 16, pages 245-261.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0163
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    Cited by:

    1. Islam, Sulequl, 2003. "Expansions of the European Union and the NAFTA: Implications for New and Non-Member countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(2).
    2. Kaminski, Bartlomiej & de la Rocha, Manuel, 2003. "Stabilization and association process in the Banlkans : integration options and their assessment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3108, The World Bank.
    3. Winters, L. Alan, 2000. "Regionalism and Multilateralism in the Twenty-First Century," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 2188, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Schiff, Maurice & Wang, Yanling, 2009. "The Regional Dimension of North-South Trade-Related R&D Spillovers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4826, The World Bank.
    5. L. Alan Winters, 2000. "Regionalism and Multilateralism in the Twenty-First Century," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8749, Inter-American Development Bank.
    6. Rym Ayadi & Luc De Wulf & Moez El Elj & Michael Gasiorek & Ahmed Ghoneim & Javier Lopez Gonzalez & Selen Guerin & Peter Holmes & Hammad Kassal & Maryla Maliszewska & Mahmut Tekce, 2009. "Economic Integration in the Euro-Mediterranean Region," CASE Network Reports 0089, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    7. Vaqar Ahmed & Samavia Batool, 2017. "India-Pakistan Trade: Perspectives from the Automobile Sector in Pakistan," Working Papers id:12263, eSocialSciences.
    8. Maurice Schiff & Yanling Wang, 2007. "North-South technology diffusion, regional integration, and the dynamics of the “natural trading partners” hypothesis," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 15(5), pages 69-84.
    9. Shamim Shakur & Chris Nees, 2011. "An application of the natural trading partner hypothesis to New Zealand- ASEAN trade," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(4), pages 3077-3088.
    10. Ng, Francis & Yeats, Alexander, 2003. "Major trade trends in East Asia : what are their implications for regional cooperation and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3084, The World Bank.
    11. Khadan, Jeetendra & Hosein, Roger, 2014. "Trade, Economic and Welfare impacts of the CARICOM-Canada Free Trade Agreement," MPRA Paper 54836, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ayuso-Díaz, Alejandro, 2022. "Natural trading partners versus empires in East and Southeast Asia regional integration (1840-1938)," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    13. Ayoki, Milton, 2019. "Are the Gulf States poised to become Uganda’s No. 1 trading partners? Emerging trends and imperatives," MPRA Paper 93646, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Ramirez, Andres & Kwok, Chuck C.Y., 2010. "Settling the debate on multinational capital structure using the CEPR measure," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 20(4-5), pages 251-271, December.
    15. World Bank, 2006. "Is There a New Vision for Maghreb Economic Integation? Volume 2. Annex," World Bank Publications - Reports 19624, The World Bank Group.
    16. Khadan, Jeetendra & Hosein, Roger, 2014. "Trade, Economic and Welfare impacts of the CARICOM-Canada Free Trade Agreement," MPRA Paper 54836, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Khadan, Jeetendra & Hosein, Roger, 2013. "New Empirical Insights into the “Natural Trading Partner” Hypothesis for CARICOM Countries," MPRA Paper 50493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Troy Lorde & Antonio Alleyne & Roger Hosein & Mu Yifei, 2020. "Should the Caribbean Look to the East? An Assessment of Caribbean Export Potential," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 136-150, January.
    19. Maur, Jean-Christophe, 2008. "Regionalism and trade facilitation : a primer," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4464, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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