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Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil

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Abstract

This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus permanent shocks, pointing to the importance of disentangling their distinct effects. Permanent supply disruptions turn out to be a bigger factor in historical oil price movements during the most recent decades, while speculative shocks became less influential.

Suggested Citation

  • Nooman Rebei & Rashid Sbia, 2019. "Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil," AMSE Working Papers 1918, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
  • Handle: RePEc:aim:wpaimx:1918
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil market; vector autoregressions; narrative analysis; Bayesian estimation; Kalman filtering;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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