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Understanding the Estimation of Oil Demand and Oil Supply Elasticities

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  • Lutz Kilian

Abstract

This paper examines the advantages and drawbacks of alternative methods of estimating oil supply and oil demand elasticities and of incorporating this information into structural VAR models. I not only summarize the state of the literature, but also draw attention to a number of econometric problems that have been overlooked in this literature. Once these problems are recognized, seemingly conflicting conclusions in the recent literature can be resolved. My analysis reaffirms the conclusion that the one-month oil supply elasticity is close to zero, which implies that oil demand shocks are the dominant driver of the real price of oil. The focus of this paper is not only on correcting some misunderstandings in the recent literature, but on the substantive and methodological insights generated by this exchange, which are of broader interest to applied researchers.

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  • Lutz Kilian, 2020. "Understanding the Estimation of Oil Demand and Oil Supply Elasticities," CESifo Working Paper Series 8567, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8567
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    1. Kilian, Lutz, 2019. "Measuring global real economic activity: Do recent critiques hold up to scrutiny?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 106-110.
    2. Kilian, Lutz, 2022. "Facts and fiction in oil market modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K., 2014. "Quantifying the speculative component in the real price of oil: The role of global oil inventories," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 71-87.
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    6. Xiaoqing Zhou, 2020. "Refining the workhorse oil market model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 130-140, January.
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    19. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2020. "Does drawing down the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve help stabilize oil prices?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 673-691, September.
    20. Christiane Baumeister & James D. Hamilton, 2019. "Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(5), pages 1873-1910, May.
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    26. Hausman, Jerry A & Newey, Whitney K, 1995. "Nonparametric Estimation of Exact Consumers Surplus and Deadweight Loss," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(6), pages 1445-1476, November.
    27. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2018. "Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 54-78.
    28. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
    29. Funashima, Yoshito, 2020. "Global economic activity indexes revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    30. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
    31. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2020. "The Role of the Prior in Estimating VAR Models with Sign Restrictions," Working Papers 2030, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    32. Lutz Kilian & Bruce Hicks, 2013. "Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003–2008?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 385-394, August.
    33. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2012. "Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding The Dynamics Of Oil Market Var Models," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1166-1188, October.
    34. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014. "The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, April.
    35. Adonis Yatchew & Joungyeo Angela No, 2001. "Household Gasoline Demand in Canada," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1697-1709, November.
    36. Braun, Robin, 2021. "The importance of supply and demand for oil prices: evidence from non-Gaussianity," Bank of England working papers 957, Bank of England.
    37. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    38. Foroni, Claudia & Stracca, Livio, 2019. "Much ado about nothing? The shale oil revolution and the global supply curve," Working Paper Series 2309, European Central Bank.
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    40. Hilde C. Bj�rnland, 2019. "Supply flexibility in the shale patch: Facts, no fiction," Working Papers No 08/2019, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kilian, Lutz, 2022. "Facts and fiction in oil market modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    2. Valenti, Daniele & Bastianin, Andrea & Manera, Matteo, 2023. "A weekly structural VAR model of the US crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    3. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2022. "Oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Wang, Fangzhi & Liao, Hua, 2022. "Unexpected economic growth and oil price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    5. Azhgaliyeva, Dina & Kapsalyamova, Zhanna & Mishra, Ranjeeta, 2022. "Oil price shocks and green bonds: An empirical evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    6. Lomonosov, Daniil & Polbin, Andrey & Fokin, Nikita, 2020. "Влияние Шоков Мировой Деловой Активности, Предложения Нефти И Спекулятивных Нефтяных Шоков На Экономику Рф [The impact of global economic activity, oil supply and speculative oil shocks on the Russ," MPRA Paper 106019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Pan, Zhiyuan & Huang, Xiao & Liu, Li & Huang, Juan, 2023. "Geopolitical uncertainty and crude oil volatility: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    8. Ron Alquist & Karlye Dilts Stedman & R. Jay Kahn, 2022. "Foreign Reserve Management and U.S. Money Market Liquidity: A Cost of Exorbitant Privilege," Research Working Paper RWP 22-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    9. Brandon Schaufele & Jennifer Winter, 2023. "Production Controls in Heavy Oil and Bitumen Markets: Surplus Transfer Due to Alberta’s Curtailment Policy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-24, January.
    10. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Frode Martin Nordvik & Maximilian Rohrer, 2021. "Supply flexibility in the shale patch: Evidence from North Dakota," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 273-292, April.
    11. M. Adam & O. Bonnet & E. Fize & T. Loisel & M. Rault & L. Wilner, 2023. "How does fuel demand respond to price changes? Quasi-experimental evidence based on high-frequency data," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers 2023-17, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    12. Zheng, Xinzhu & Wang, Ranran & Liddle, Brantley & Wen, Yuli & Lin, Lu & Wang, Lining, 2022. "Crude oil footprint in the rapidly changing world and implications from their income and price elasticities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    13. Hong, Yanran & Wang, Lu & Liang, Chao & Umar, Muhammad, 2022. "Impact of financial instability on international crude oil volatility: New sight from a regime-switching framework," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    14. Asad Dossani & John Elder, 2024. "Uncertainty and investment: Evidence from domestic oil rigs," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 323-340, February.
    15. Lutz Kilian, 2023. "How to Construct Monthly VAR Proxies Based on Daily Futures Market Surprises," Working Papers 2310, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    16. Daniil Lomonosov & Andrey Polbin & Nikita Fokin, 2021. "The Impact of Global Economic Activity, Oil Supply and Speculative Oil Shocks on the Russian Economy," HSE Economic Journal, National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 227-262.
    17. Braun, Robin, 2021. "The importance of supply and demand for oil prices: evidence from non-Gaussianity," Bank of England working papers 957, Bank of England.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil supply elasticity; oil demand elasticity; IV estimation; structural VAR; Bayesian inference; oil price; gasoline price;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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