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Oil price shocks and US business cycles

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  • Qureshi, Irfan A.
  • Ahmad, Ghufran

Abstract

This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks on the US economy, focusing on how changes in oil supply expectations impact key indicators. We introduce an instrument to identify these shocks by isolating exogenous fluctuations in daily crude oil futures linked to catastrophic events in major oil-producing countries. These events arise independently of short-term market dynamics, minimizing reverse causality concerns. The shock disrupts oil operations, reduces economic activity, and increases unemployment and inflation, highlighting the role of oil prices in driving business cycles. Comprehensive robustness checks and analysis of other major economies reinforce the validity of our findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Qureshi, Irfan A. & Ahmad, Ghufran, 2025. "Oil price shocks and US business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:177:y:2025:i:c:s0165188925000983
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105132
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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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