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Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Supply News

Author

Listed:
  • Lorenzo Mori

    (University of Padova)

  • Gert Peersman

    (Ghent University)

Abstract

A common approach for estimating the macroeconomic effects of oil supply news employs SVAR-IV models identified using changes in oil futures prices around OPEC quota announcements as an instrument. However, we show that the reduced-form oil price innovations, structural shocks, and the instrumental variable in these estimations are all Granger-caused by financial variables, indicating informational deficiencies in the VAR model and contamination of the instrument. To resolve these issues, we incorporate financial indicators into the econometrician’s information set, yielding significantly different results. These include a sharper short-term output decline, lower and less persistent inflationary effects, and a reversal of the monetary policy response. Our results also show greater stability over time and the disappearance of puzzling responses. Finally, we identify similar issues in other prominent oil-market SVAR models, suggesting that informational deficiencies are a pervasive issue in oil-market research.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Mori & Gert Peersman, 2024. "Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Supply News," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0314, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    • Handle: RePEc:pad:wpaper:0314
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Savaş Tarkun, 2025. "The impact of oil supply surprises on maritime transport: a temporal and sectoral analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 161(4), pages 1501-1525, November.
    2. Guillermo Verduzco-Bustos & Francesco Zanetti, 2026. "The Effects of Geopolitical Oil Price Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 12606, CESifo.
    3. Gert Peersman, 2025. "Understanding Post-Pandemic Inflation Fluctuations: The Commodity Cost Channel," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 25/1123, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    4. Degasperi, Riccardo, 2023. "Identification of Expectational Shocks in the Oil Market using OPEC Announcements," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1464, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    5. Qureshi, Irfan A. & Ahmad, Ghufran, 2025. "Oil price shocks and US business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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