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How to Construct Monthly VAR Proxies Based on Daily Futures Market Surprises

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  • Kilian, Lutz

Abstract

It is common in applied work to estimate responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news shocks derived from surprise changes in daily futures prices around the date of policy announcements. This requires mapping the daily surprises into a monthly shock that may be used as an external instrument in a monthly VAR model or local projection. The standard approach has been to sum these daily surprises over the course of a given month when constructing the monthly proxy variable, ignoring the accounting relationship between daily and average monthly price data. In this paper, I provide a new approach to constructing monthly proxies from daily surprises that takes account of this link and revisit the question of how to use OPEC announcements to identify news shocks in VAR models of the global oil market. The proposed approach calls into question the interpretation of the identified shock as oil supply news and implies quantitatively and qualitatively different estimates of the macroeconomic impact of OPEC announcements.

Suggested Citation

  • Kilian, Lutz, 2023. "How to Construct Monthly VAR Proxies Based on Daily Futures Market Surprises," CEPR Discussion Papers 18348, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18348
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Juan Michelsen, 2026. "Global Risk Shocks in a Small Open Economy and Their Impact on Monetary Policy Surprises," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0093, Berlin School of Economics.
    3. Savaş Tarkun, 2025. "The impact of oil supply surprises on maritime transport: a temporal and sectoral analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 161(4), pages 1501-1525, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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