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Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling

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  • Lutz Kilian

Abstract

Baumeister and Hamilton (2019a) assert that every critique of their work on oil markets by Kilian and Zhou (2019a) is without merit. In addition, they make the case that key aspects of the economic and econometric analysis in the widely used oil market model of Kilian and Murphy (2014) and its precursors are incorrect. Their critiques are also directed at other researchers who have worked in this area and, more generally, extend to research using structural VAR models outside of energy economics. The purpose of this paper is to help the reader understand what the real issues are in this debate. The focus is not only on correcting important misunderstandings in the recent literature, but on the substantive and methodological insights generated by this exchange, which are of broader interest to applied researchers.

Suggested Citation

  • Lutz Kilian, 2019. "Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling," CESifo Working Paper Series 7902, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7902
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kilian, Lutz, 2019. "Measuring global real economic activity: Do recent critiques hold up to scrutiny?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 106-110.
    2. Lutz Kilian, 2017. "The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
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    7. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2013. "Inference on impulse response functions in structural VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(1), pages 1-13.
    8. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2019. "Oil prices, exchange rates, and interest rates," 2019 Meeting Papers 592, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    10. Anthony Garratt & Shaun P. Vahey & Yunyi Zhang, 2019. "Real‐time forecast combinations for the oil price," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 456-462, April.
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    13. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Frode Martin Nordvik & Maximilian Rohrer, 2021. "Supply flexibility in the shale patch: Evidence from North Dakota," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 273-292, April.
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    17. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2020. "Does drawing down the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve help stabilize oil prices?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 673-691, September.
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    25. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2018. "Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 54-78.
    26. Koop, Gary, 1996. "Parameter uncertainty and impulse response analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 135-149.
    27. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
    28. Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-968, November.
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    30. James D. Hamilton, 2019. "Measuring Global Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 25778, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2012. "Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding The Dynamics Of Oil Market Var Models," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1166-1188, October.
    32. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014. "The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, April.
    33. Lutz Kilian, 1999. "Finite-Sample Properties of Percentile and Percentile-t Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Impulse Responses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 652-660, November.
    34. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zeina Alsalman, 0. "Does the source of oil supply shock matter in explaining the behavior of U.S. consumer spending and sentiment?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-28.
    2. Palmén, Olli, 2020. "Sovereign default risk and credit supply: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    3. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2019. "Supply flexibility in the shale patch: Facts, no fiction," Working Papers No 08/2019, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    4. Nonejad, Nima, 2020. "An observation regarding Hamilton’s recent criticisms of Kilian’s global real economic activity index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    5. Dalheimer, Bernhard & Herwartz, Helmut & Lange, Alexander, 2021. "The threat of oil market turmoils to food price stability in Sub-Saharan Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil supply elasticity; oil demand elasticity; IV estimation; structural VAR; Bayesian inference; oil price; global real activity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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