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Confronting Model Misspecification in Macroeconomics

  • Daniel F. Waggoner
  • Tao Zha

We estimate a Markov-switching mixture of two familiar macroeconomic models: a richly parameterized DSGE model and a corresponding BVAR model. We show that the Markov-switching mixture model dominates both individual models and improves the fit considerably. Our estimation indicates that the DSGE model plays an important role only in the late 1970s and the early 1980s. We show how to use the mixture model as a data filter for estimation of the DSGE model when the BVAR model is not identified. Moreover, we show how to compute the impulse responses to the same type of shock shared by the DSGE and BVAR models when the shock is identified in the BVAR model. Our exercises demonstrate the importance of integrating model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty to address potential model misspecification in macroeconomics.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17791.

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Date of creation: Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2012. "Confronting model misspecification in macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(2), pages 167-184.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17791
Note: EFG ME
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