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Confronting model misspecification in macroeconomics

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  • Daniel F. Waggoner
  • Tao Zha

Abstract

We confront model misspecifications in macroeconomics by proposing an analytic framework for merging multiple models. This framework allows us to address uncertainty about models and parameters simultaneously and trace out the historical periods in which one model dominates other models. We apply the framework to a richly parameterized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and a corresponding Bayesian vector autoregressive model. The merged model, fitting the data better than both individual models, substantially alters economic inferences about the DSGE parameters and the implied impulse responses.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010. "Confronting model misspecification in macroeconomics," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2010-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2010-18
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    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

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