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Riding the Energy Transition: Oil beyond 2040


  • Reda Cherif
  • Fuad Hasanov
  • Aditya Pande


Recent technological developments and past technology transitions suggest that the world could be on the verge of a profound shift in transportation technology. The return of the electric car and its adoption, like that of the motor vehicle in place of horses in early 20th century, could cut oil consumption substantially in the coming decades. Our analysis suggests that oil as the main fuel for transportation could have a much shorter life span left than commonly assumed. In the fast adoption scenario, oil prices could converge to the level of coal prices, about $15 per barrel in 2015 prices by the early 2040s. In this possible future, oil could become the new coal.

Suggested Citation

  • Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov & Aditya Pande, 2021. "Riding the Energy Transition: Oil beyond 2040," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 117-137, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:asiapr:v:16:y:2021:i:1:p:117-137
    DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12317

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tsuguhiko Nakagawa, 2021. "Comment on “Riding the Energy Transition: Oil beyond 2040”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 140-141, January.
    2. Daniel Santabárbara, 2017. "The oil market: recent developments and outlook," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue SEP, pages 1-12.
    3. Takatoshi Ito & Kazumasa Iwata & Colin McKenzie & Shujiro Urata, 2021. "Energy and the Environment: Editors' Overview," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 1-21, January.
    4. Earl, James & Fell, Michael J., 2019. "Electric vehicle manufacturers' perceptions of the market potential for demand-side flexibility using electric vehicles in the United Kingdom," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 646-652.

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