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OPEC and non-OPEC oil production and the global economy

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  • Ratti, Ronald A.
  • Vespignani, Joaquin L.

Abstract

Hamilton identifies 1973 to 1996 as “the age of OPEC” and 1997 to the present as “a new industrial age.” During 1974-1996 growth in non-OPEC oil production Granger causes growth in OPEC oil production. OPEC oil production decreases significantly with positive shocks to non-OPEC oil production in the earlier period, but does not do so in the “new industrial age”. In the “new industrial age” OPEC oil production rises significantly with an increase in oil prices, unlike during “the age of OPEC” period. OPEC oil production responds significantly to positive innovations in global GDP throughout. Over 1997:Q1-2012:Q4 the negative effect on real oil price of positive shocks to non-OPEC oil production is larger in absolute value than that of positive shocks to OPEC oil production. The cumulative effects of structural shocks to non-OPEC oil production and to real oil price on OPEC oil production are large. The cumulative effects of structural shocks to OPEC production and real oil price on non-OPEC production are small. Results are robust to changes in model specification. An econometric technique to predict OPEC oil production provides support for the results from the SVAR analysis. Results are consistent with important changes in the global oil market.

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  • Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2014. "OPEC and non-OPEC oil production and the global economy," MPRA Paper 59527, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:59527
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    3. Bataa, Erdenebat & Izzeldin, Marwan & Osborn, Denise R., 2016. "Changes in the global oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 161-176.
    4. Marcin Wk{a}torek & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z & Pawe{l} O'swic{e}cimka & Marek Stanuszek, 2018. "Multifractal cross-correlations between the World Oil and other Financial Markets in 2012-2017," Papers 1812.08548, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2019.
    5. Al Rousan, Sahel & Sbia, Rashid & Tas, Bedri Kamil Onur, 2018. "A dynamic network analysis of the world oil market: Analysis of OPEC and non-OPEC members," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 28-41.
    6. Alekhina, Victoriia & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2018. "Impact of World Oil Prices on an Energy Exporting Economy Including Monetary Policy," ADBI Working Papers 828, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    7. Nooman Rebei & Rashid Sbia, 2019. "Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil," AMSE Working Papers 1918, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    8. M.J., Presno & M., Landajo & P., Fernandez Gonzalez, 2017. "The Shocks To Crude Oil Production. Nonparametric Stationarity Analysis For 20 OPEC And Non-OPEC Countries," MPRA Paper 81594, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    11. Chen, Hao & Liao, Hua & Tang, Bao-Jun & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2016. "Impacts of OPEC's political risk on the international crude oil prices: An empirical analysis based on the SVAR models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 42-49.
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    16. Thomas S. Gundersen, 2018. "The Impact of U.S. Supply Shocks on the Global Oil Price," Working Papers No 7/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    OPEC production; non-OPEC; oil Price; global oil market;

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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