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Oil prices: Breaks and trends

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  • Noguera, José

Abstract

This paper contributes to the literature of the stationarity of financial time series and the literature on oil and macroeconomics in several ways. First, it uses Kejriwal and Perron (2010) sequential procedure to endogenously determine multiple structural changes in real oil prices without facing the circular testing problem between structural changes and stationary assumptions of previous tests. Second, it performs a diagnostic check to detect the significance and magnitude of the potential breaks. Third, it uses the above information to test for the existence of stochastic trends in real oil prices, and fourth, it speculates about possible explanations for the break dates found in order to encourage further work and discussions. The exercise uses monthly data from January 1861 to August 2011.

Suggested Citation

  • Noguera, José, 2013. "Oil prices: Breaks and trends," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 60-67.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:37:y:2013:i:c:p:60-67
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.12.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2015. "Applied econometrics and implications for energy economics research," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 351-358.
    2. Mishra, Vinod & Smyth, Russell, 2017. "Conditional convergence in Australia's energy consumption at the sector level," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 396-403.
    3. Chang, Roberto & Hevia, Constantino & Loayza, Norman, 2018. "Privatization And Nationalization Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(02), pages 331-361, March.
    4. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2013. "Are crude oil spot and futures prices cointegrated? Not always!," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 641-650.
    5. Muhammad Shahbaz & Sakiru Adebola Solarin & Hrushikesh Mallick, 2015. "Are Fluctuations in Gas Consumption Per Capita Transitory? Evidence from LM Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," Bulletin of Energy Economics (BEE), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(4), pages 203-209, December.
    6. repec:eee:touman:v:63:y:2017:i:c:p:3-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Chang, Chun-Ping & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2015. "Do oil spot and futures prices move together?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 379-390.
    8. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "OPEC and non-OPEC oil production and the global economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 364-378.
    9. Noguera-Santaella, José, 2016. "Geopolitics and the oil price," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 301-309.
    10. repec:eee:eneeco:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:298-305 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Lin, Shih-Mo, 2014. "Non-linear dynamics in international resource markets: Evidence from regime switching approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 233-247.
    12. repec:eee:energy:v:125:y:2017:i:c:p:97-106 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-589 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khraief, Naceur & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Zaman, Khair Uz, 2014. "Are fluctuations in natural gas consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from time series and panel unit root tests," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 183-195.
    15. Sun, Jingwei & Shi, Wendong, 2015. "Breaks, trends, and unit roots in spot prices for crude oil and petroleum products," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 169-177.
    16. repec:eco:journ2:2017-06-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Sam Olofin & Afees A. Salisu, 2017. "Modelling oil price-inflation nexus: The role of asymmetries and structural breaks," Working Papers 020, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    18. repec:eee:appene:v:212:y:2018:i:c:p:244-264 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price; Structural changes; Trends; WTI;

    JEL classification:

    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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