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A Sequential Procedure to Determine the Number of Breaks in Trend with an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component

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  • Mohitosh Kejriwal
  • Pierre Perron

Abstract

Perron and Yabu (2008) consider the problem of testing for a break occuring at an unknown date in the trend function of a univariate time series when the noise component can be either stationary or integrated. This paper extends their work by proposing a sequential test that allows one to test the null hypothesis of, say, l breaks, versus the alternative hypothesis of (l + 1) breaks. The test enables consistent estimation of the number of breaks. In both stationary and integrated cases, it is shown that asymptotic critical values can be obtained from the relevant quantiles of the limit distribution of the test for a single break. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that the procedure works well in finite samples.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohitosh Kejriwal & Pierre Perron, 2009. "A Sequential Procedure to Determine the Number of Breaks in Trend with an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1217, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pur:prukra:1217
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2013. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts, and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 892-927, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural change; sequential procedure; feasible gls; unit root; structural breaks;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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