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International trade and structural change

  • Ben-David, Dan
  • Papell, David H.

In light of the substantial movement towards trade liberalization during the postwar period, this paper attempts to determine if, and when, countries experienced statistically significant changes in the paths of their export-GDP and import-GDP ratios. We find that: (1) most trade ratios exhibited a" structural break in their time paths; (2) postbreak trade exceeded prebreak trade for the majority of countries; (3) the coincidence in timing between the import and export breaks does not appear to be particularly strong, and; (4) there is little relation between the extent of changes in imports and the extent of changes in exports for most countries.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 43 (1997)
Issue (Month): 3-4 (November)
Pages: 513-523

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Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:43:y:1997:i:3-4:p:513-523
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  1. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  2. Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," Scholarly Articles 3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  3. Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David H., 1995. "The great wars, the great crash, and steady state growth: Some new evidence about an old stylized fact," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 453-475, December.
  4. Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche 9423, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  5. Ben-David, D. & Papell, D.H., 1996. "Slowdowns and Meltdowns: Post-War Growth Evidence from 74 Countries," Papers 9-96, Tel Aviv.
  6. repec:oup:qjecon:v:108:y:1993:i:3:p:653-79 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
  8. Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
  9. Andrew K. Rose, 1990. "Why has trade grown faster than income?," International Finance Discussion Papers 390, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Vogelsang, Timothy J., 1997. "Wald-Type Tests for Detecting Breaks in the Trend Function of a Dynamic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 818-848, December.
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