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The Impact Of GATT On International Trade: Evidence From Structural Break Analysis

  • Suleiman Abu-Bader

    ()

    (Dept. of Economics, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Israel)

  • Aamer S. Abu Qarn

    ()

    (Dept. of Economics, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Israel)

In this study we test for structural changes in international trade patterns of 77 countries over the post-WWII period, to examine if they experienced a substantial increase in their trade ratios following major GATT rounds such as the Kennedy Round, or after joining GATT. Our results show that trade ratios of most of these countries exhibited structural breaks in their time paths, however, most of the postbreak paths were below the extrapolated prebreak paths. Furthermore, while the significant break years coincided closely with major regional and international events such as the oil shocks of the 70s and the East-Asian financial crisis in 1997, they occurred far before or after the time of a country's accession to GATT or the time of the major GATT rounds.

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Paper provided by Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0712.

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Length: 23pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bgu:wpaper:0712
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  1. Dan Ben-David & David H. Papell, 1997. "International Trade and Structural Change," NBER Working Papers 6096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Do WTO Members have More Liberal Trade Policy?," NBER Working Papers 9347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Arvind Subramanian & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly But Unevenly," NBER Working Papers 10024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Rose, Andrew K, 2002. "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3538, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Irwin, Douglas A, 1995. "The GATT in Historical Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 323-28, May.
  6. Vogelsang, T.I. & Perron, P., 1991. "Nonstationary and Level Shifts With An Application To Purchasing Power Parity," Papers 359, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  7. Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
  8. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
  9. Andrew K. Rose, 1991. "Why Has Trade Grown Faster than Income?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 24(2), pages 417-27, May.
  10. Vogelsang, Timothy J., 1997. "Wald-Type Tests for Detecting Breaks in the Trend Function of a Dynamic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 818-848, December.
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