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The Relationship between GATT Membership and Structural Breaks in International Trade


  • Abu-Bader Suleiman

    () (Ben-Gurion University of the Negev)

  • Abu-Qarn Aamer S

    () (Ben-Gurion University of the Negev)


Using sequential structural break tests, we attempt to determine if and when a new GATT member experiences statistically significant changes in the paths of its trade with incumbent members. To test for the nature of a change, we compare the averages of the actual postbreak trade shares with the averages of the postbreak extrapolated trade shares. Should a significant structural break be detected, we compare the break year with the accession year of that country to GATT. Our results show that only a small fraction of countries experience significant positive structural breaks in their trade shares. Furthermore, any significant positive breaks generally occur far before or after the time of a country's accession to GATT.

Suggested Citation

  • Abu-Bader Suleiman & Abu-Qarn Aamer S, 2008. "The Relationship between GATT Membership and Structural Breaks in International Trade," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 1-16, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:glecon:v:8:y:2008:i:4:n:1

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Robert W. Staiger & Kyle Bagwell, 1999. "An Economic Theory of GATT," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 215-248, March.
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    6. Vogelsang, Timothy J., 1997. "Wald-Type Tests for Detecting Breaks in the Trend Function of a Dynamic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 818-848, December.
    7. Dan Ben-David & David H. Papell, 1998. "Slowdowns And Meltdowns: Postwar Growth Evidence From 74 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 561-571, November.
    8. Irwin, Douglas A, 1995. "The GATT in Historical Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 323-328, May.
    9. Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
    10. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2001. "The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-27, February.
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