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The Relationship between GATT Membership and Structural Breaks in International Trade

  • Abu-Bader Suleiman

    ()

    (Ben-Gurion University of the Negev)

  • Abu-Qarn Aamer S

    ()

    (Ben-Gurion University of the Negev)

Using sequential structural break tests, we attempt to determine if and when a new GATT member experiences statistically significant changes in the paths of its trade with incumbent members. To test for the nature of a change, we compare the averages of the actual postbreak trade shares with the averages of the postbreak extrapolated trade shares. Should a significant structural break be detected, we compare the break year with the accession year of that country to GATT. Our results show that only a small fraction of countries experience significant positive structural breaks in their trade shares. Furthermore, any significant positive breaks generally occur far before or after the time of a country's accession to GATT.

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Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Global Economy Journal.

Volume (Year): 8 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 1-16

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:glecon:v:8:y:2008:i:4:n:1
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