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Trade Liberalization Or Oil Shocks: Which Explains Structural Breaks In International Trade Ratios?

Author

Listed:
  • Suleiman Abu-Bader

    () (BGU)

  • Aamer S. Abu-Qarn

    () (BGU)

Abstract

Ben-David and Papell's (1997) tests for structural breaks in international trade ratios over the post-WWII period revealed that trade ratios exhibited structural breaks in their paths and that postbreak trade averages exceeded prebreak averages. They attributed these breaks to trade liberalization policies executed during the postwar period. We reevaluate their results by comparing the postbreak trade ratios with extrapolated ratios based on the prebreak trend, and testing for structural breaks in the relative prices of imports (exports). We find that oil shocks rather than trade liberalization were the major factor behind the structural breaks in trade ratios.

Suggested Citation

  • Suleiman Abu-Bader & Aamer S. Abu-Qarn, 2006. "Trade Liberalization Or Oil Shocks: Which Explains Structural Breaks In International Trade Ratios?," Working Papers 0613, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bgu:wpaper:0613
    as

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    File URL: http://in.bgu.ac.il/en/humsos/Econ/Workingpapers/0613.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marvel, Howard P & Ray, Edward J, 1983. "The Kennedy Round: Evidence on the Regulation of International Trade in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 190-197, March.
    2. Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David H., 1997. "International trade and structural change," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 513-523, November.
    3. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
    4. Vogelsang, Timothy J., 1997. "Wald-Type Tests for Detecting Breaks in the Trend Function of a Dynamic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 818-848, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International trade; Trade Liberalization; Structural change; Oil shocks; Kennedy Round;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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