IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v57y2015icp61-85.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

US monetary policy and sectoral commodity prices

Author

Listed:
  • Hammoudeh, Shawkat
  • Nguyen, Duc Khuong
  • Sousa, Ricardo M.

Abstract

Using a Structural VAR (SVAR) model, we examine the effects of the monetary policy of the United States on sectoral commodity prices (including the non-fuel commodity prices, food prices, beverage prices, prices of agricultural raw materials, prices of metals and prices of fuel (energy) commodities) and macroeconomic activity. The empirical evidence suggests that a U.S. monetary contraction leads to an immediate rise in the broad commodity price index, which possibly reflects an aggregation bias, greater expected inflation and speculation, high production costs or some overshooting due to overreactions. Then, the response erodes after six quarters as the positive interest rate shock vanishes and higher interest rates and liquidity drainage take traction. Despite this, the aggregate price response masks the existence of significant heterogeneity in the price responses of the different types of commodity sectors. More specifically, a positive interest rate shock leads to: (i) an initial pop in the price returns of the non-fuel commodities, which later reverses path and becomes negative (as in the case of the prices of agricultural raw materials); (ii) a positive and persistent rise in the volatile food prices; (iii) a fall in the beverage prices; and (iv) a persistent reduction in the prices of metals and the prices of energy prices. Our results also remain globally intact with respect to alternative specifications and identification schemes as well as to unconventional monetary policy effects. Similar results are also found when commodity futures prices are used. We conclude that policymakers should recognize the source of sector inflation before embarking on contractionary monetary policy. The design of core inflation targeting is also preferable to headline inflation targeting.

Suggested Citation

  • Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "US monetary policy and sectoral commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 61-85.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:57:y:2015:i:c:p:61-85
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.06.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560615001035
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2012. "How does fiscal policy react to wealth composition and asset prices?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 874-890.
    2. Sousa, Ricardo M., 2010. "Housing wealth, financial wealth, money demand and policy rule: Evidence from the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 88-105, March.
    3. Chambers, Robert G. & Just, Richard E., 1982. "An investigation of the effect of monetary factors on agriculture," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 235-247.
    4. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters,in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February.
    6. Leeper, Eric M. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1673-1700, November.
    7. Batten, Jonathan A. & Ciner, Cetin & Lucey, Brian M., 2010. "The macroeconomic determinants of volatility in precious metals markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 65-71, June.
    8. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-425.
    9. António Afonso & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(34), pages 4439-4454, December.
    10. Dean Scrimgeour, 2015. "Commodity Price Responses to Monetary Policy Surprises," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(1), pages 88-102.
    11. Gouteron, S. & Szpiro, D., 2005. "Excès de liquidité monétaire et prix des actifs," Working papers 131, Banque de France.
    12. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "Commodity prices and BRIC and G3 liquidity: A SFAVEC approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 18-33.
    13. Humphreys, David, 2010. "The great metals boom: A retrospective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-13, March.
    14. Bordo, Michael David, 1980. "The Effects of Monetary Change on Relative Commodity Prices and the Role of Long-Term Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1088-1109, December.
    15. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1984. "Commodity Prices and Money: Lessons from International Finance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(5), pages 560-566.
    16. Luca Agnello & Vitor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2015. "Booms, Busts, and Normal Times in the Housing Market," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 25-45, January.
    17. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    18. Ansgar Belke & Ingo Bordon & Torben Hendricks, 2010. "Global liquidity and commodity prices-a cointegrated VAR approach for OECD countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 227-242.
    19. Philip Cagan, 1972. "Introduction to "The Channels of Monetary Effects on Interest Rates"," NBER Chapters,in: The Channels of Monetary Effects on Interest Rates, pages 1-8 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
    21. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2013. "Why are crude oil prices high when global activity is weak?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 133-136.
    22. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
    23. Klaas Baks & Charles Frederick Kramer, 1999. "Global Liquidity and Asset Prices; Measurement, Implications, and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 99/168, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2012. "How do central banks react to wealth composition and asset prices?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 641-653.
    25. Belke, Ansgar H. & Bordon, Ingo G. & Hendricks, Torben W., 2014. "Monetary policy, global liquidity and commodity price dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-16.
    26. Sophie Brana & Marie-Louise Djibenou & Stéphanie Prat, 2012. "Global excess liquidity and asset prices in emerging countries: a pvar approach," Working Papers hal-00740102, HAL.
    27. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yuan, Yuan, 2008. "Metal volatility in presence of oil and interest rate shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 606-620, March.
    28. Jawadi Fredj & Mallick Sushanta K. & Sousa Ricardo M., 2014. "Fiscal policy in the BRICs," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-15, April.
    29. Afonso, António & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2011. "What are the effects of fiscal policy on asset markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1871-1890, July.
    30. Belke, Ansgar & Orth, Walter & Setzer, Ralph, 2010. "Liquidity and the dynamic pattern of asset price adjustment: A global view," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1933-1945, August.
    31. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2014. "Effects of speculation and interest rates in a “carry trade” model of commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 88-112.
    32. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128.
    33. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
    34. Helge Berger & Thomas Harjes, 2009. "Does Global Liquidity Matter for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 33-55, May.
    35. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1985. "Commodity Prices, Money Surprises and Fed Credibility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 425-438, November.
    36. Cover, James P. & Mallick, Sushanta K., 2012. "Identifying sources of macroeconomic and exchange rate fluctuations in the UK," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1627-1648.
    37. Sims, Christopher A. & Zha, Tao, 2006. "Does Monetary Policy Generate Recessions?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(02), pages 231-272, April.
    38. Hirotugu Akaike, 1969. "Fitting autoregressive models for prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 21(1), pages 243-247, December.
    39. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    40. Mallick, Sushanta K. & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2012. "Real Effects Of Monetary Policy In Large Emerging Economies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S2), pages 190-212, September.
    41. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vitor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "What determines the duration of a fiscal consolidation program?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 113-134.
    42. Pindyck, Robert S & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1990. "The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1173-1189, December.
    43. Ratti, Ronald A & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2012. "Why are crude oil prices high when global activity is weak?," MPRA Paper 43777, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    44. Philip Cagan, 1972. "The Channels of Monetary Effects on Interest Rates," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number caga72-1, December.
    45. Allan H. Meltzer, 1995. "Monetary, Credit and (Other) Transmission Processes: A Monetarist Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 49-72, Fall.
    46. Reginald Darius, 2010. "Can Global Liquidity Forecast Asset Prices?," IMF Working Papers 10/196, International Monetary Fund.
    47. repec:taf:applec:44:y:2012:i:34:p:4439-4454 is not listed on IDEAS
    48. Humphreys, David, 2009. "Comment: Unravelling the causes of the mineral price boom," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 103-104, September.
    49. Cody, Brian J & Mills, Leonard O, 1991. "The Role of Commodity Prices in Formulating Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 358-365, May.
    50. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
    51. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "Wealth, Asset Portfolio, Money Demand And Policy Rule," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(1), pages 95-111, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:jimfin:v:87:y:2018:i:c:p:96-111 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eee:intfin:v:57:y:2018:i:c:p:94-109 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Yves Jégourel, 2018. "Tendances et cyclicité du prix des matières premières (partie 2) : le super-cycle des matières premières en question," Policy notes & Policy briefs 1824, OCP Policy Center.
    4. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "Oil prices and global factor macroeconomic variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 198-212.
    5. Kablan, Sandrine & Ftiti, Zied & Guesmi, Khaled, 2017. "Commodity price cycles and financial pressures in African commodities exporters," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 215-231.
    6. Bhattacharya. Rudrani, 2017. "Effectiveness of monetary policy in stabilising food inflation: Evidence from advanced and emerging economies," Working Papers 17/209, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    7. repec:bla:agecon:v:48:y:2017:i:1:p:15-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Gopalakrishnan, Balagopal & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2018. "Turning over a golden leaf? Global liquidity and emerging market central banks’ demand for gold after the financial crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 94-109.
    9. repec:eee:ememar:v:35:y:2018:i:c:p:69-90 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:eee:jimfin:v:77:y:2017:i:c:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vitor & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2017. "Spillovers from the oil sector to the housing market cycle," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 209-220.
    12. repec:wly:jforec:v:37:y:2018:i:1:p:16-36 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Gabriela Contreras & Francisco Pinto, 2016. "Traspaso de tipo de cambio nominal a inflación desagregada en Chile," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 19(2), pages 154-170, August.
    14. Batten, Jonathan A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Peat, Maurice, 2016. "Gold and silver manipulation: What can be empirically verified?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 168-176.
    15. Bakas, Dimitrios & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2018. "The impact of uncertainty shocks on the volatility of commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 96-111.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Commodity prices; Structural VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:57:y:2015:i:c:p:61-85. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.